Grains Slide Lower To Start The Week

Watch us on RFD-TV, today at 9:45 AM CT! Corn (December)

Fundamentals: Corn futures are drifting lower in the early morning trade as fears of adverse weather in the northern plains seem mostly baked into the cake, coupled with exceptional conditions in the south. Crop progress will be out this afternoon, analysts are looking for unchanged to slightly lower good/excellent ratings. Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 13,675 contracts through July 20th, putting their net long position at 218,563.

Technicals: In our Friday morning report we wrote about a break and close below support from 547-552 ¼ could open the door for a run at trendline support and the 100-day moving average, which comes in in the mid 530’s. December corn futures initially opened higher, but turned negative shortly after, trading down to the 100-day moving average and our key support pocket, 533-536. The market has been able to defend this pocket through much of the morning, if that support is unable to hold through today’s session, we could see the selling continue to take prices closer to the psychologically significant $5.00 handle.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 573 ¼-575****, 588 ½-591 ¼*** Pivot: 547-552 ¼ Support: 533-536***, 507-514****, 500 ¼** Soybeans (November)

Fundamentals: Soybean futures are continuing to drift lower with a lot of the hot/dry weather being priced into the market, coupled with concerns over waning demand. Crop progress will be out this afternoon, analysts are looking for unchanged to slightly lower good/excellent ratings. Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 12,060 contracts, putting their net long position at a modest 88,621, through July 20th.

Technicals: In our Friday morning report we wrote about the weakening technical landscape and the inability to reclaim ground above 1365-1370 could open the door for drop into our next support pocket, 1325 ¾-1333. This pocket was tested in the overnight session and has so far held. The Bulls MUST continue to defend this pocket, a failure to do so could keep the pressure on and take us back to the psychologically and technically significant support pocket from 1300-1306 ¾.

Bias: Neutral Previous Session Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 1398-1401***, 1414 ¾-1423** Pivot: 1365-1370 Support: 1325 ¾-1333***, 1300 ½-1306 ¾*** Chicago Wheat (September)

Technicals: The 100-day moving average seems to be the common support indicator in the grain complex, to start the week. Along with corn and beans, wheat also tested and has so far held the 100-day moving average in the overnight/early morning trade. That comes in at the ominous price of 666.66. A failure to defend the 100-day moving average could trigger additional technical selling, the next significant support pocket doesn’t come in until 648 ¼-651 ¼.

Bias: Neutral/Bearish Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Resistance: 694 ¼-700***, 723 ½-725** Pivot: 672-676 ½ Support: 666**, 648 ¼-651 ¼****


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