- Senate infrastructure bill worth $1 trillion and gathering bipartisan support could be voted on as early as this week.
- Democrats in the House could slow the movement, attaching it to a broader $3.5 trillion spending bill.
- Breaking News: The number of trillion dollar packages makes it hard to keep track of the trillions of dollars being spent.
- Manufacturing PMI in China last night missed at 50.3 vs 51.0 exp. Second miss in a row and six of last eight.
- Eurozone was better at 62.8 vs 62.6 exp, carried by Germany.
- U.S. Manufacturing PMI due at 8:45 am CT and the more closely watched ISM follows at 9:00.
- New Covid cases in China, but Tech rout took a breather
- Cases in U.S. climb, encourages speak from Fed Governor Brainard and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari that called for more job gains and came off dovish, easily the two most dovish members.
- A rise in Covid deaths Friday may have had a headline risk-off impact to finish the week. However, this included a high number of backlog reporting, soothing the open Sunday night.
S&P (September) / NQ (Sept)
- Gaps from Friday’s settlements at 4389.50 and 14,955.75 have not been covered
- Trend line resistance in the NQ going back to 7/27 at highs
- Momentum indicator in the S&P aligns to make first key support, move below there neutralizes the strong Sunday open.
- We remain cautious and see opportunities selling rallies across all four indices at different levels; S&P, NQ, YM, and RTY
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4389.50, down 22.25
Resistance: 4421-4422.50***, 4429**, 4446***
Support: 4400-4403**, 4389.50***, 4382.25-4383.75**, 4367.25-4370.75**, 4355.75-4359.50***
NQ, yeterday’s close: Settled at 14,955.75, down 82.00
Resistance: 15,040***, 15,098-15,134***, 15,206**, 15,271***
Support: 14,850-14,871***, 14,750-14,790***, 14,692-14,722***
Crude Oil (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 73.95, up 0.33
- Tape decisively below momentum indicator at 73.40
- Early weakness holding major three-star support; must close below or bulls can take back up
- Close below 72.40-72.64 opens the door to 70.56-70.71
Resistance: 73.62-73.95**, 74.69-74.90***
Support: 72.40-72.64***, 72.05*, 71.65-71.70**, 71.08**, 70.56-70.71***
Gold (December) / Silver (Sept)
- Massive resistance in both Gold and Silver won again.
- Price action back below our momentum indicators, Pivots, exuding further exhaustion after a quick rip.
- Failures on Friday pins each back to critical levels of support defining this fresh bull wave post-FOMC; 1801.5-1804.6 in Gold most important.
- Treasuries remain bid and U.S. Dollar weak, but Gold on its face.
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1817.2, down 18.6
Resistance: 1824.5**, 1834.5-1839***, 1854.6-1858.3***
Support: 1810.9**, 1801.5-1804.6***, 1793-1796***
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 25.547, down 0.235
Resistance: 25.74-25.85****, 26.20**, 26.55-26.72***, 27.24***
Support: 25.35***, 25.19**, 24.99-25.05**, 24.88***, 24.65***
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