Jobs, Jobs, Jobs - Rounding Out the Busiest Week | Actionable Research and Signals | Morning Express
E-mini S&P (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3404.75, up 69.85
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,076.50, up 313.50
Fundamentals: In one of the most fundamental weeks of the year, price action has been equally technical. Typically, such makes for a terrific trading environment. All things considered, the election has been decided in favor of former Vice President Biden, and the Federal Reserve stayed a narrow path. Nonfarm Payroll is now on deck. U.S. benchmarks surged higher this week not only as fundamental uncertainties were removed, but after the S&P technically held unchanged on the year one week ago. Furthermore, this week’s melt higher in each the S&P and NQ tested trend line resistance from their respective all-time highs yesterday, allowing for the tape to then consolidate into this morning’s critical jobs read at 7:30 am CT.
Expectations are for 600,000 jobs to have been created in October, the Unemployment Rate to tick down to 7.7% from 7.9%, and for Average Hourly Earnings to gain 0.2% MoM and 4.6% YoY. These are certainly stellar improvements, in line with the Federal Reserve’s statement yesterday; “Economic activity and employment have picked up in recent months but remain well below their levels at the beginning of the year.”
In order to combat the slow recovery and consistently low inflation, Fed Chair Powell has maintained that fiscal stimulus measures are necessary. However, he added yesterday that the Federal Reserve has not exhausted their monetary “ammunition” and “powerful tools” remain.
Today’s jobs data is pivotal, risk-assets want to see an economic improvement, but the real inflection is quickly approaching. Once the dust from the election settles, can Congress come together and achieve new Coronavirus Aid legislation before yearend?
Technicals: Price action in each the S&P and NQ tested and failed at our major three-star resistance levels yesterday. These are trendlines at 3515 in the S&P and 12,125 in the NQ, essentially at the same mark still this morning. The ensuing consolidation has allowed our momentum indicator to catch up with the S&P last night and encouraged lower price action to relieve the market profile. This morning our momentum indicator for the S&P comes in at 3493 and lurks closely behind the NQ at 11,900. It is now clearly out above the S&P and will encourage a healthy consolidation after such a magnificent run. What was our first level of major three-star support at 3451.75 was tested overnight with a low of 3456.75, this reduces it to a key level and now pins our first major three-star support at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and techincal outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Crude Oil (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 38.79, down 0.36
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is tracking risk-assets lower as news that Iraq produced more than allotted in October weighs on the energy complex. As we noted here yesterday, there are several potentially bullish tailwinds as U.S. Crude and Distillates stocks dive into the top-end of their 5-year ranges. We said last week that we anticipate more jargon from OPEC+ on delaying their production cut taper once the election results are more definitive and as we move closer to a planned meeting at the end of November. We have already begun to hear from Russia that they support a delay and further confirmations will be extremely supportive in the near-term. Today, Crude will trade closely with the broad risk-environment given the jobs data. Baker Hughes Rig Count is due at noon CT.
Technicals: Crude Oil flat out failed to regain major three-star resistance at 39.23-39.36 and this has encouraged waves of selling. Price action is approaching a critical level of major three-star support at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and techincal outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1946.8, up 50.6
Fundamentals: Gold had its best day since April gaining 2.7% and Silver ripped higher gaining 5.4%. The metals complex found steady strength from U.S. Dollar weakness. As the Dollar Index hits the lowest level since September 1st, the day it hit its low of the year, the Chinese Yuan is trading at the highest level against the Dollar since June 2018. Bill Baruch joined CNBC’s Futures Outlook yesterday to discuss the trade in Silver and pointed to the Yuan’s 7% rise against the Dollar since June and how he believes there is at least another 3% to go. China has made adding to its strategic metals reserves a centerpiece of its new 5-year plan to begin in 2021. With a strong Yuan, the communist nation can buy more metals.
Nonfarm Payroll is due at 7:30 am CT and will play a pivotal role today in either pressuring the Dollar Index to new lows on the year or staving off fresh waves of selling.
Technicals: Gold’s ascent certainly invites fresh buying, but traders must understand that there is significant overhead technical resistance at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and techincal outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
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