Leaked USDA Data Pressures Prices

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The FSA accidentally posted the September acreage data yesterday morning and removed it shortly after. They have reposted to ensure "equitable access". Below is a summary. Click this link for the official press release


Planted + Failed acreage registrations are as follows:

As of Sept. 1

Corn 91,218,347

Soybeans 86,184,041

Wheat 49,323,018


The Aug. 2 data was

Corn 90,308,879

Soybeans 85,286,646

Wheat 48,807,604

Corn (December)


Fundamentals: Corn futures are continuing their slide lower in the early morning trade as thoughts that the crop is growing (in acres and potentially bushels) has spurred long liquidation from Funds. CONAB estimates the Brazilian corn crop will come in at 85.749, down from their previous estimate of 86.650mmt. Due to Monday’s holiday, export sales have been pushed back to tomorrow. Also tomorrow is the WASDE/Crop Production report, out at 11:00 AM CT. The average analyst estimate for yield is 175.8 bushels per acre. The average analyst estimate for harvested acres is 85.1 million and the average estimate for production is 14.942 billion bushels.


Technicals: Corn futures traded on both sides of unchanged yesterday, finishing the session near the bottom end of the day’s range. That weakness has bled into overnight/early morning pressure, taking us to new lows for the move and below the low end of our support pocket, 507. Support (and resistance) pockets can be used by bullish and bearish traders. If you’ve been short, this is the spot to reduce exposure. If you’re Bullish the market, this is the spot to consider buying.


Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish


Resistance: 529 ½-533***, 551 ½-555 ½****

Pivot: 507-514 ¼

Support: 500 ¼**, 491 ¼-493 ½***

Soybeans (November)


Fundamentals: Due to Monday’s holiday, export sales have been pushed back to tomorrow. Also tomorrow is the WASDE/Crop Production report, out at 11:00 AM CT. The average analyst estimate for yield is 50.4 bushels per acre. The average analyst estimate for harvested acres is 86.7 million and the average estimate for production is 4.377 billion bushels.


Technicals: Soybeans stabilized yesterday but have taken out yesterday’s low in the early morning trade. Take the overnight/early morning trade with a grain of salt, as the participation is low, making it easier to move a market. Keep in mind that the previous two sessions we were higher overnight, but saw selling come in on the floor open. The market is treading right in our support pocket, 1270-1277 ¼. A break and close below here and there’s little in the way until you get closer to the June 17th low, 1240 ½. 1286 ½-1292 is the pocket the Bulls want to chew through, the tried but failed yesterday. If they can move out above this pocket, we could see an extension towards the psychologically significant $13.00 handle.


Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral


Resistance: 1300 ½-1306 ¾***, 1325 ¾-1333****

Pivot: 1286 ¼-1292

Support: 1270-1277 ¼**, 1240 ½****

Wheat (December)


Technicals: Wheat futures are trading below the 100-day moving average for the first time since July 15th, as the bearish head and shoulder formation continues to play out. 694 ¾-700 is technically and psychologically significant, a break and close below here, and there’s little in the way of support until 675-680 ½. The Bears have the technical advantage until the Bulls can chew through 744 ¾-750.


Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish


Resistance: 718 ½-723 ½***, 744 ¾-750****, 770 ½**

Pivot: 694 ¾-700

Support: 675-680 ½****


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