Markets Shrug Off Delta Variant, Focus on Fed and Data | Morning Express
E-mini S&P (September) / NQ (Sept)
S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 4271.25, up 15.25 on Friday and 117.75 on the week
NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 14,339, down 15.25 on Friday and up 304.00 on the week
Fundamentals: The S&P and NQ are clinging to last week’s record setting gains as they gear up for another gauntlet of news flow. The economic calendar culminates with Nonfarm Payroll Friday. The Federal Reserve pivoted to a more hawkish narrative but are hinging their path to job creation over the next few months. There is a deluge of Manufacturing data from the U.S., Europe, and China leading into Friday. Although there is no major economic data to start the week, Fed speak will usher us in; NY Fed President Williams speaks at 8:00 am CT and Fed Governor Quarles speaks at 1:10 pm CT. Policy comments from committee members characterized much of last week and will do the same throughout this one. The Delta Variant is also grabbing headlines. Just as the summer travel season kicks into high gear, Covid cases are again climbing in the U.K and Australia due to the contagious new strain. The U.S. Dollar and Treasuries are incurring a safe-haven bid, but equity markets remain underpinned by last week’s momentum and what is still seen as a patient Federal Reserve.
Technicals: Price action has given us no reason to part with our more Bullish Bias. The S&P finished the week on a strong note, decisively breaking out above major three-star resistance aligning with its previous record high. Old resistance is now support, and this is the case for both the S&P and NQ. Major three-star support in the S&P comes in at 4258.25-4260 and that for the NQ comes in at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Crude Oil (August)
Last week’s close: Settled at 74.05, up 0.75
Fundamentals: Crude Oil has several competing narratives to digest as the week gets underway. Of course, the Delta Variant invites fresh demand fears and is grabbing headlines at the onset of the summer travel season. Covid cases are rising around the world, most notably in the U.K., Australia, Russia and the Asian-Pacific. Also bringing a potential headwind is the OPEC+ meeting set to begin July 1st and the group is expected to bring back some production. Furthermore, talks between the U.S. and Iran on sanctions are expected to take place in the coming days. This could pave the way to furthering nuclear talks. At the same time, there is strong demand. U.S Crude inventories have fallen for five weeks in a row, with the last four being at a pace of 5 mb or more. U.S. Crude stocks are now at the lowest levels since March 2020, before lockdowns hit. Furthermore, floating storage is at the lowest levels since last April and heavy declines in China’s inventories pins those at those at four month lows.
Technicals: Price action has climbed steadily since late May, even setting a fresh high overnight. We remain very Bullish over all timeframes but do believe the better value is now going to be found upon a retest into $70. For now, price action is battling out above previous landmark resistance at 72.70-73.25, which we have since broken out. First key support comes in at 73.25-73.29 and major three-star support sits below there at .. Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Gold (August) / Silver (September)
Gold, last week’s close: Settled at 1777.8, up 1.1 on Friday and 8.8 on the week
Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 26.126, up 0.037 on Friday 0.117 on the week
Fundamentals: Gold and Silver face another gauntlet of a week; Fed speak and data dump. Now, the U.S. Dollar is seeing a safe haven bid due to the Delta Variant, but it has yet to weigh significantly on Gold as the headlines are also underpinning the Treasury complex (suppressing rates). At the end of the day, it will be about job creation on Friday. Are enough people coming back to the workforce in order to speed up the Federal Reserve’s timeline to tapering asset purchases. Today’s calendar is quiet on the data front, but NY Fed President Williams kicked the week off and expressed concerns that Money Market Funds and Treasury markets could lose liquidity during times of crisis. His comments come amid growing concerns for the Delta Variant and Gold did tick upwards. We now look to comments from Fed Governor Quarles at 12:10 pm CT.
Technicals: Rally attempts each day last week stalled significantly against overhead resistance levels. For Gold, first key resistance at 1785.9-1787.8 and Friday’s high above there at 1791 have been sticky, slowing buying and allowing for sellers to come in. As for Silver, it has run into resistance at 26.40-26.55 multiple times before retreating and settling back below 26.16. The rallies have come early in the session and price action has drifted lower into settlements and the evening session. Our momentum indicator comes in at 1780 for Gold and aligns with 26.16 for Silver; steady action above here is supportive. However, a failure to hold here will open the door for one more small flush to ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.