Morning Express - stocks, oil and gold analysis
E-mini S&P (June)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3110.75, up 51.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 10,125.75
Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks are pointing higher ahead of the bell despite a quick whipsaw early last night. White House Adviser Navarro, in an interview with Fox News, said the U.S.-China trade deal is “over”. The S&P quickly plunged 1.5% to a low of 3060. Risk-assets across the board were tagged and safe-havens gained. Essentially, the negativity was quickly absorbed and just as hastily turned into optimism on the heels of President Trump and White House Adviser Kudlow’s damage control. Where Kudlow called the comments false and out of context, President Trump tweeted the trade deal is fully intact.
Better than feared June Flash PMI data out of Europe has brought additional tailwinds and we now look to the U.S. releases at 8:45 am CT. All three reads from France and Manufacturing from the U.K. showed expansion. The better than feared data highlights the recovery from lockdown conditions, but it is absolutely crucial to put such expansions in the correct context. The improvement in the data is from bleak conditions; these are not expansions upon a strong backdrop and there is still a “long road ahead”. However, this is a light at the end of the tunnel. We also look to New Home Sales at 9:00 am CT along with Richmond Fed Manufacturing.
Technicals: Price action is sharply higher and pointing to a path of least resistance in the S&P to 3500. Yes, 3500. We remain cautiously Bullish in Bias, as we have been. However, we now view the bull-flag pattern that we have referenced for over a week to have completed the last lower low Sunday night. Last night’s knee-jerk whipsaw created a technical rejection of lower prices and held major three-star support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed directly each morning.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 40.73, up 0.90
Fundamentals: Along with all risk-assets, Crude Oil whipsawed on comments from White House Adviser Navarro that the U.S.-China trade deal is over. After President Trump and quickly walked back those reports, it was risk-on once again and the tape has not really looked back. August Crude Oil is eyeing the gap from March 6th at 42.33 and has traded through the front-month April gap at 41.28. Flash PMIs from Europe were better than feared and this has added a tailwind. We look to U.S. PMIs at 8:45 am CT. Although there are reports that China could cool its imports at these higher prices, hopes of OPEC+ compliance and their generational rebalancing scheme continue to fuel a path of least resistance higher. Inventory data will come into the picture later today. Early estimates are somewhat muted, tethered to unchanged.
Technicals: As stated above, we continue to find a path of least resistance higher until 42.33 is achieved. Our momentum indicator aligns with yesterday’s settlement and previous resistance to create our Pivot and the bulls are in the clear driver’s seat while above here. Last night’s dip was met by major three-star support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed directly each morning.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1766.4, up 13.4
Fundamentals: Gold has extended it range out above yesterday’s high. Amid geopolitical concerns, central bank liquidity and a seasonally strong time of year – Gold seems to want to achieve $1800. Bill Baruch joined CNBC’s Fast Money Halftime Show yesterday to discuss the trade in Gold and where the line in the sand support is on the week. Flash PMI data is better than expected across the board this morning but as the results broadly do not show expansion from dismal levels, the better news should now knock Gold off course.
Technicals: We remain Bullish Gold across all time frames while out above 1753 on the week. Only a close below 1737-1743 will signal a failure. Until then, Gold is eyeing new swing highs and 1820. Our momentum indicator comes in at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed directly each morning.
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