E-mini S&P (March)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3380.50, up 23.00
Fundamentals: U.S benchmarks finished at new records yesterday on what was a steady grind higher the entire session. Apple led the way gaining 2.38% but the rally was broad with Facebook +1.72% and names like Comcast +2.75%. Healthcare plan providers like UnitedHealth and Anthem surged by more than four and five percent, however, drug manufacturers, devices and biotech were all lower. The Semis gained 1.5% and even Energy participated by 1.3%.
Despite the strong finish, those “gyrations” we referenced here yesterday kicked in at 5:30 pm CT, just after the reopen. China’s Hubei province, one of the two epicenters for the Coronavirus breakout now medically termed the Covid-19, revised the counting method for confirmed cases. We also discussed here yesterday that stocks were queuing off the slowest pace of new infections since early January, but Chinese officials were not classifying a positive test unless symptoms were present. Reclassifying it properly added about 15,000 cases, a gain of nearly one third. The death toll has now also topped 1600. Global stocks are under a bit of healthy pressure this morning on the news.
Macro economists have been waiting all week for the back-half. U.S CPI data is due at 7:30 am CT and Retail Sales is out tomorrow morning. However, the inflation read is downplayed by Fed officials reemphasizing this week that policy is in an appropriate place. Tomorrow’s Retail Sales may be a much more important report at this time and place given how crucial the U.S consumer is to not only the domestic economy but that from around the world. NY Fed President Williams speaks at 4:30 pm CT. Tomorrow, we also have reads on Industrial Production and fresh February Michigan Consumer data.
Technicals: We have had a cautiously Bullish Bias all week and given last night’s news poured cold water over yesterday’s exuberance we want to take a step back into Neutral to watch a few rounds. More importantly, each the S&P and NQ are trading below our momentum indicators this morning. For the S&P that comes in at ... Plesae sign up to receive our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels by email each morning.
Crude Oil (March)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 51.17, up 1.23
Fundamentals: The risk-environment was broadly healthy yesterday and queued off a slowing pace of virus outbreaks. Despite a massive build in headline Crude inventories of 7.459 mb, a small draw in Gasoline buoyed the tape and lifted Gasoline for a gain of 4.4%. The news of revised outbreak numbers (discussed in the S&P section) has weighed on the energy sector through the evening and into morning but only to a minor degree. If outbreak numbers continue to climb at such a pace, it is very easy to imagine Crude Oil back to recent swing lows very quickly. Especially so after the IEA’s monthly report. The International Energy Agency said fuel consumption is now expected to contract by 435,000 bpd in the first quarter. Furthermore, they laid expectations that the annual demand growth will be the lowest since 2011.
Technicals: Yesterday’s recovery traded higher into today’s session and achieved a high of 51.96, nudging minor resistance at 51.84 and just shy of key resistance at 52.20-52.44. Price action is below our Pivot at ... Plesae sign up to receive our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels by email each morning.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1571.6, up 1.5
Fundamentals: Despite only meager gains, given the move in Treasuries and the Dollar yesterday, Gold notched a magnificent session. The metal found itself in a good place to respond to the revised virus outbreak numbers from Hubei at 5:30 pm CT last night. Still, it finds itself at elevated levels and against technical resistance with a slate of crucial data right around the corner. Today’s U.S CPI is important but certainly not as much as we’ve seen in recent months. However, tomorrow with Retail Sales, Industrial Production and fresh Michigan Consumer data will be of the utmost importance and ultimately define the week for Gold.
Technicals: We’ve held a Neutral Bias this week, explaining that Gold must close above 1578.2-1579.5 in order to invite bullish waves in the near term once again. However, we have not wavered from our unequivocally long-term bullish Bias, investors must own some Gold in their portfolio. This level has acted as a bit of a ceiling ahead of U.S hours, but with our momentum indicator at ... Plesae sign up to receive our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels by email each morning.
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