• Bill Baruch

Morning Express


E-mini S&P (June)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2732, down 74.50

Fundamentals: U.S benchmarks are snapping back from yesterday’s weakness and facing a crucial level of technical resistance discussed by Bill Baruch in ‘What’s Moving’. Heading into the open, Treasury yields are firming, and commodity prices are stable. Although the front-month June WTI contract is flirting in the red (we must now be careful calling it negative), farther down the curve is up sharply. Today’s economic calendar is light, but tomorrow brings the heat: Jobless Claims and Flash PMIs. Yesterday, the Senate passed an additional stimulus bills to bolster the depleted aid program for small businesses. This news is viewed as supportive, but the House still needs to pass the plan through a proxy vote later this week.

Netflix reported after the bell yesterday. The stock spiked by nearly 10% initially on a strong Q1, to a new record high, but quickly pared back on a watered-down outlook. Chipotle was the standout gaining about 6% overnight on record digital sales. AT&T reported this morning, the stock is near unchanged. The company pulled its annual forecast and said Q1 revenue fell short as company lost TV subscribers, however, they brought on more monthly phone subscribers than average. Delta Airlines is marginally in the green after reporting steep losses this morning as expected. Kimberly Clark is also near unchanged after reporting better revenues and removing annual guidance.


Technicals: Yesterday, we introduced a cautiously Bearish as long as the S&P stays suppressed below what is major three-star resistance at ... Please sign up at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outloook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed directly. Crude Oil (June)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 11.57, down 8.86

Fundamentals: June WTI Crude Oil set two records yesterday; trading to a low of 6.50 and losing 43.3%. May was in physical delivery on Monday, its move into negative territory although historic, does not count. With storage capacity near depletion, today’s inventory data will be front and center. Last night’s private API survey posted +13.226 mb Crude, +3.434 mb Gasoline and +7.639 mb Distillates. They also reported Cushing as adding 4.913 mb. Expectations for the official EIA report are +15.15 mb Crude, +3.578 mb Gasoline and +2.75 mb Distillates. Russian Energy Minister Novak is talking this morning. He said global Oil demand to fall by 20-30 mbpd. He added that the OPEC+ cuts agreed to could reach 15-20 mbpd in May and its too early to tell if additional cuts are needed but pointed out we are at the bottom of the demand decline now. We do not view these comments as too supportive. However, President Trump made an ill-advised attempt to buoy prices by threatening to attack Iranian boats if they harass U.S ships. It will be interesting to see if Washington cooks something up to stave off this glut.


Technicals: We have had a cautiously Bearish Bias for a while now. We are now Neutral as the flush has occurred and the May contract officially expired yesterday. Also, Brent which we spoke of yesterday took out 17.33 support with a low of 16.00 overnight. It is retesting $20 also signaling the flush occurred and relief is taking place. At this point in time, we would not be surprised to see June WTI at $0 or at $20. Price action briefly shredded through major three-star support that aligns previous record lows at 9.75-10.49. We still have this as strong support and the tape overnight held this level. To the upside, we have major three-star resistance at ...  Please sign up at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outloook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed directly. Gold (June)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1687.8, down 23.4

Fundamentals: Gold has done something great over the last 24 hours in shaking off waves of deflation from Crude Oil and ignoring equity market weakness yesterday. Yes, Gold settled down 1.5% but post-settlement it came back in an extremely healthy manner as U.S equity benchmarks and Crude were on lows of the day and the Dollar was stronger. This further bolsters the narrative that Gold will set a fresh record high. Silver is still a laggard though and has taken the brunt of the deflationary heat. The Gold/Silver Ratio is back to three-week highs. President Trump tweeted threatening Iran if they harass U.S ships, the U.S will attack; this is seen as supportive to the metal.


Technicals: Gold held major three-star support at 1660.5 yesterday with a low of 1666.2. The metal is now out above a crucial area at 1707.5-1713 and chewing through major three-star resistance at 1725-1727.5 which paves a path of least resistance higher. We must see a close above ...  Please sign up at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outloook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed directly.

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors.