E-mini S&P (June)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2788.50, up 56.50
Fundamentals: Weekly Jobless Claims and Flash PMIs are in focus this morning. U.S benchmarks snapped back yesterday from a poor Tuesday. There was a lot of green across the board and tech led the way (Facebook, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Semiconductors). However, price action remained contained below technical resistance and this ups the ante on today’s tape. PMI data from Europe and the U.K early this morning was ugly and hit record lows; every single read was worse than expected. U.S Jobless Claims are due at 7:30 am CT and PMI data follows at 8:45 am CT. New Home Sales data is released at 9:00 am CT, Kansas City Fed Manufacturing at 10:00 and NY Fed President John Williams speaks at 1:00 pm. Intel reports after the bell. The record tally in unemployment (Jobless) claims is expected to continue adding another 4.2 million to a number already topping 22 million. Equity markets have not performed poorly on these release days, but luckily for bulls the data was accompanied by fresh measures or news from the Fed and Washington. All in all, we expect volatility to continue.
Ahead of an EU teleconference summit today seeking to unleash 2 trillion Euros in stimulus, the ECB relaxed lending restrictions to facilitate money flowing through Italian banks as the nation’s debt is downgraded. The measures come as the bloc battles an impending recession due to the pandemic. Today, German Chancellor Merkel said Germany is still at the beginning of the crisis and the World Health Organization warned against complacency and lifting lockdowns.
Technicals: Despite yesterday’s strength, both the S&P and NQ stayed contained below major three-star resistance levels aligning with Monday’s settlements at 2806.50 and 8692. Each respective level held through the overnight, but our momentum indicators are rising and bringing steady support below the tape. For the S&P this comes in at ... Please sign up at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day. Crude Oil (June)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 13.78, up 2.21
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is stable this morning and seeing gains across the curve with June leading the way. However, negative option strikes will be introduced after the close today and we imagine this being a new hurdle the market must digest. Bill Baruch joined Yahoo Finance yesterday to breakdown what this landmark event means for traders. EIA inventory data yesterday went largely unnoticed upon an already volatile tape as a 15 mb build of Crude inventories was in line with expectations. Crude Oil is now within 14 mb of record storage levels last seen in 2017, however, the dynamic much different now and then. Even more concerning is storage capacity at Cushing, Oklahoma which is down to less than 18 mb. With Oil demand down by about 30 mb due to the pandemic, physical issues as seen in the May contract become more and more likely for June. President Trump and Iran have taken to jawboning activity in the seas as a means to increase geopolitical tensions and in turn buoy the price of Oil, however, this can only go so far.
Technicals: We remain Neutral in Bias. For now, Crude Oil is contained below previous support, now major three-star resistance at 16.68-17.12; a close above here could easily pave the way to $20. To the downside, our momentum indicator is rising and brings first key support at ... Please sign up at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day. Gold (June)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1738.8, up 50.5
Fundamentals: Gold secured a terrific session yesterday and our Bullish Bias was on the nose. However, the metal is nearly $100 or 5% from Tuesday’s low and our narrative is as relevant as ever; you do not want to chase Gold when everyone is screaming for it, this is when you want to capitalize on Gold that you already own. The Treasury complex is stable hovering just above record yield levels. Equity markets and Crude are also each stable and this has been supportive to Gold as the metal shakes off U.S Dollar strength. We look to Initial Weekly Jobless Claims at 7:30 am CT and Flash PMIs at 8:45 am CT. These along with comments from NY Fed President Williams will play a key role in solidifying the session gains.
Technicals: The trend through the week and through this year is undeniable, this is why we will continue to hold a more Bullish Bias, however, we still want to exude caution remind those that you do not want to chase rallies. Overhead resistance does come in at ... Please sign up at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day.
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