E-mini S&P (June)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2918.75, down 29.25 Fundamentals: U.S benchmarks yo-yoed down in the final minutes yesterday and back nearly as quick last night. STAT, a health and medicine news journal, threw cold water over Moderna’s positive Phase 1 trials for a Covid-19 vaccine, saying, “experts have no way of knowing how impressive – or not – the vaccine may be”. This comes after Moderna’s Phase 1 trial vaccinated dozens and polled just eight. STAT concluded the enthusiasm was overdone. Furthermore, not only did the company use the stock rally to sell $1.34 billion worth of new shares, executives also unloaded. The news cratered the tape late in the session, however, in this ultra-stimulated Fed-driven world price action has had no issues erasing those losses ahead of today’s open.
Fed Chair Powell and U.S Treasury Secretary Mnuchin each defended their efforts to buoy the economy during lockdowns. All things considered, despite the expected partisan pushback, their testimonies were viewed as supportive. Mnuchin painted an economy that must come out of lockdowns sooner and his expectations of a V-shaped recovery. Whereas Powell exuded concerns of a slower recovery while Americans are hesitant to return to their normal life due to fears of infection, of course, signaling more stimulus measures are likely to be needed. Today, we look to Minutes from the April 28-29 Federal Reserve policy meeting due at 1:00 pm CT. On the earnings front, Lowe’s and Target are both surging premarket on the heels of earnings that showed strong sales during lockdowns. Technicals: Price action in the S&P was stretching higher and made a fresh intraday high late in the session yesterday at 2858.50. It appeared as if it were setting up for a convincing close out above major three-star resistance at 2940-2953.75 before the Moderna news dropped. Separately, the NQ was at its overnight high and priming for a test headfirst int
o rare major four-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed directly. Crude Oil (July) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 31.96, up 0.31 Fundamentals: The feared June contract is now off the board after a month characterized by a steady rise, one that shocked even the most bullish of market participants. Front-month July is higher this morning after the private API inventory survey late yesterday printed a much larger headline draw of Crude Oil than expected at -4.8 mb. This was accompanied by a 5 mb draw at Cushing. The supportive report comes ahead of official EIA data at 9:30 am CT where expectations are for +1.15 mb Crude, -2.134 mb Gasoline and +1.429 mb Distillates. Estimated U.S production will be watched closely as well as a confirmation of such draws at Cushing. Adding a tailwind are reports of lower output from Russia and a healthy risk environment overnight given the snapback in equity prices following the poor close. Technicals: Price action is stable and back to major three-star resistance at 32.96 ahead of today’s data. First key support is rising to align session lows, our momentum indicator and settlement over the last two days. The bears must achieve a close below ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed directly.
Gold (June) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1745.6, up 11.2 Fundamentals: Gold has held up well since Monday’s failed rally attempt; the weaker Dollar, firm Treasury complex yesterday and strength in Silver have all contributed to buoying the metal. Fed Chair Powell was seen as supportive yesterday as were the high hopes of U.S Treasury Secretary Mnuchin which lifted inflation expectations in relevance. Today, we look to the Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s April 28-29 meeting for clues of preparation of additional measures coming down the pipeline. Flash PMIs are due tomorrow. Open Interest in the August contract is catching up to June as June unwinds through next week’s expiration. We believe there to be a ceiling in Gold until this June contract is off the board.
Technicals: We remain unequivocally Bullish Gold over the long-term but still slightly cautious in the near term due to Monday’s action and the looming June expiration. Still, Gold has first key support at 1743 and it is constructive in the near-term holding tests to this level. Our momentum indicator comes in at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed directly.
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