Morning Express | Actionable Macro Market Roadmap authored by Bill Baruch ahead of the Opening Bell
E-mini S&P (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3335.50, down 82.00
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 11,060.50, down 488.25
Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks added to their healthy, yet sharp, pullback yesterday and finished on the lows. During the bullish melt-up, Tesla became the poster child of irrational exuberance, something Bill Baruch discussed during an interview with the TD Ameritrade Network last week when he added that a “market top was near, if not today”. The stock lost 21.06% yesterday, tallying a loss of 34% from its September 1st peak after S&P announced it would not include the company in its benchmark index. Although the tape was already heavy due to profit-taking and President Trump’s comments on China, which exemplified a deteriorating relationship, this added to weakness as portfolio managers tracking the S&P had to back-balance. After the close, AstraZeneca said it paused the Phase 3 clinical trial of their Covid-19 vaccine for a routine safety review after an adverse reaction in one of its patients. The news led to a gap lower on the reopen, the S&P traded to 3295.50, but price action has worked to pare those losses and turn positive ahead of U.S. hours. Traders must ask themselves this morning whether they believe the market has incurred enough panic in order to find it’s bottom. We look to JOLTs Job Openings at 9:00 am CT and a 10-year auction at noon amid an otherwise quiet economic calendar ahead of tomorrow’s ECB policy meeting. Although Brexit concerns are making headlines this morning, U.S.-China relations are not. Europe is trading higher with benchmarks gaining nearly 1%. Asia is a different story with China’s Shanghai Composite closing lower by 1.86% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng shedding 0.63%.
Technicals: Both the S&P and NQ held crucial levels of technical support through the close yesterday. However, the S&P decisively broke below 3330-3344.75 to a low of 3295.50 early last night before paring losses and turning positive by as much as 1% ahead of U.S. hours. The NQ stuck its nose below 11,000 to a low of 10,935 but held another wave of major three-star support at 10,890. We continue to find the pocket of ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed each morning. Crude Oil (October)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 36.76, down 3.01
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is attempting to stabilize from yesterday’s thrashing and tracking equity markets higher ahead of the open. The main culprit in yesterday’s selling was the sharp drop in China’s Crude Imports for August. Globally, China imported a record 12.99 mb in June and 12.13 mb in July; this fell to 11.18 in August, during a time when expectations where heightened and ultimately keeping Crude pinned near the $43 mark. The new data has reinvigorated global demand fears. China did much of the heavy lifting during the pandemic, but considering large stockpiling, can it continue? Remember, OPEC tapered their production cuts beginning August 1st, bringing more supply to the table. Early expectations are for the EIA to post a seventh straight weekly draw on Thursday. Bill Baruch joined CNBC’s Halftime Show yesterday to discuss his outlook on Crude.
Technicals: Yesterday’s low of 36.13 and higher low today of 36.16 has helped propel a recovery after essentially achieving our rare major four-star support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed each morning. Gold (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1943.2, up 8.9
Fundamentals: Gold is using a test and hold of strong support yesterday coupled with a wave of U.S. Dollar weakness this morning to set new highs on the week. The Euro, British Pound and U.S. Dollar are all jockeying wild swings after last week’s slate of economic data and ahead of tomorrow’s ECB policy meeting and next week’s FOMC meeting. All the while Brexit has made its way back into the headlines. The metal has not acted as a safe haven during the recent wave of weakness in equities, but it has certainly not done anything wrong and this sets the stage for a continuation of its strength this year.
Technicals: We maintain a cautiously Bullish Bias as Gold bounces back from another headfirst test to major three-star support at 1907.4-1909.6 and ensuing settlement back above 1928-1932. Major three-star resistance remains at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed each morning.
Sign up for your FREE trial of our daily Markets Commentary!
Follow us on our social media sites to stay on the pulse of our latest research and commentary!
Twitter - twitter.com/bluelinefutures
Facebook - facebook.com/BlueLineFutures
StockTwits - stocktwits.com/BlueLineFutures
Latest blog posts - bluelinefutures.com/blog
Blue Line Futures
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.