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Morning Express | Actionable Macro Market Roadmap authored by Bill Baruch ahead of the Opening Bell

E-mini S&P (December)


Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3372.25, up 49


NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 11,280, up 219


Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks are set to open higher, adding to yesterday’s gains. A slate of economic data from China last night was largely better than expected with Retail Sales grabbing headlines after gaining 0.5% YoY, its first expansion this year. Industrial Production edged out expectations along with Fixed Asset Investment, however the latter was merely less of a contraction. From Germany, ZEW Economic Sentiment improved better than expected for September. However, although a separate gauge, ZEW Current Conditions, printed better than expected it still showed a net of 66.2% believing economic growth will get worse over the next six months. Traders are leaning on the upbeat data, improving from dismal levels, and yesterday’s deal-making news to carry the market out of Friday’s weakness. As we have discussed many times before, markets focus on the rhetoric they want. In this case, they are ignoring fresh restrictions imposed by the U.S. on Chinese apparel, hair products and some technology due to forced labor. Furthermore, a video conference between the EU and China concluded yesterday with the EU also pressuring the communist nation on human rights and opening its market to foreign investments.

From the U.S., we look to fresh NY Empire State Manufacturing at 7:30 am CT along with Import/Export Price Index data. Industrial Production is due at 8:15 am CT. The Fed begins its two-day policy meeting and we look to further developments on Oracle’s potential partnership with ByteDance’s U.S. assets. There is a 20-year Bond auction at noon CT.


Technicals: Price action in each the S&P and NQ has grinded higher through the overnight and set to open above yesterday’s high. Each is now testing key resistance with major three-star resistance overhead. The first level comes in at 3396.50 in the S&P and 11,403 in the NQ. The more critical points come at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlok, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed each morning.


Crude Oil (October)


Yesterday’s close: Settled at 37.26, down 0.07


Fundamentals: Crude Oil is up more than 1% this morning as it largely ignores warnings from the IEA. The market is instead focusing on economic data from China that continues to improve from dismal levels, whereas the IEA cut its oil demand forecast by another 300,000 bpd in its Monthly Report this morning. They said a resurgence in Covid-19 cases and a weak economic outlook will weigh on global GDP and oil consumption. Price action is also ignoring Tropical Storm Sally being downgraded, the lingering threat of additional supplies being added from OPEC+, U.S. production stabilizing and early estimates pointing to another EIA build tomorrow.


Technicals: Price action struggled early at first key resistance at 38.00 although it is holding out above our Pivot which encompasses our momentum indicator and yesterday’s close (as well as the previous three). Out above first key resistance is major three-star resistance at ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlok, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed each morning.

Gold (December)


Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1963.7, up 15.8


Fundamentals: Gold and the metals complex are keying off better than expected economic data from China and a broadly weaker U.S. Dollar to gain early ground on the session. Overall, risk-assets are all higher and Treasuries are lower; Gold has largely ignored intraday action in rates, seemingly only concerned that they have remained in a confined range. NY Empire State Manufacturing was better than expected this morning and we look to Industrial Production at 8:15 am CT. It will be important to see how the Dollar responds to the data as we look to the conclusion of the Fed’s two-day policy meeting tomorrow.


Technicals: Price action is lingering at and flirting just above major three-star resistance at 1973-1976.6. Our momentum indicator trails the rally at 1969 and this will bring a line on the session that favors continued buying from the bulls to achieve a close above major three-star resistance. Such a close would encourage ...  Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlok, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed each morning.


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