Morning Express | Actionable Proprietary Research and Levels | Stocks, Oil, and Gold
E-mini S&P (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3422.75, down 39.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 11,650.25, down 17.75
Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks quickly stalled out yesterday morning and an unenthusiastic tape slipped sharply into settlement. The White House created a self-imposed deadline today for Congress to iron out stimulus details and this coupled with headlines that President Trump said House Speaker Pelosi does not want a Coronavirus Aid bill ahead of the election weighed on risk-sentiment. However, there are ongoing talks between the Speaker and U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin that will continue today. Updates throughout the day will certainly swing the tape as sentiment battles the fear of additional restrictions due to virus outbreaks.
On the earnings front, UBS posted blowout third quarter results and the stock is up nearly 7%. Domestically, Travelers is setting a strong tone gaining more than 3% premarket after strong results. Lockheed Martin, Procter & Gamble and Philip Morris are all holding ground in slight positive territory after reporting this morning. Netflix headlines after the bell along with Texas Instruments.
Building Permits and Housing Starts were mixed this morning. NY Fed President Williams speaks at 8:00 am CT and Fed Governor Quarles speaks at 9:50 am CT; both positions are permanent voting roles. Chicago Fed President Evans, a 2021 voter, speaks at noon CT. There is also a 2-year action then.
Technicals: Yesterday’s weakness did not break the current uptrend and certainly not the more intermediate-term bull market. However, the S&P did close below a crucial level of support at 3431-3437.50. Similarly, the late selling pushed the NQ below major three-star support at 11,764-11,792. Despite both occurrences, major three-star support for each sits below at 3406.76-3410 in the S&P and 11,539-11,574 in the NQ; a move and close below each will neutralize the current uptrend and damage the prospects of a bullish Cup and Handle pattern. Until then, the bulls are still in the driver’s seat and we will look for a buying opportunity into those supports. Furthermore, the Handle’s flag pattern market profile can quickly trap shorts. Our momentum indicator comes in at 3450 for the S&P and 11,755 for the NQ; these will align to create first key resistance levels and a move out above such should gather steam.
Resistance: 3450-3455.75**, 3462.25**, 3494**, 3508.50**, 3524.75**, 3532.75***
Support: 3406.75-3410***, 3369.50**, 3353.25***, 3329-3330.50***
Resistance: 11,750-11,764**, 11,860-11,871**, 11,950-11,974***, 12,094**, 12,225-11,249***, 12,397-12,465***
Support: 11,650**, 11,539-11,574***, 11,454**, 11,266-11,273***, 11,167-11,197**
Crude Oil (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 41.06, down 0.06
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is on its backfoot along with the broader risk-environment although Copper and the metals complex does seem quite buoyant. Weighing on Crude specifically is the failure of OPEC+ to emphasize the willingness to delay production increases on January 1st and comments from Iraq’s Oil Minister that such production cuts do not bode well for their economy and the country is still targeting 7 mbpd in production. Additionally, early EIA estimates are not bullish, and traders were hoping for a follow-up to last week’s draws.
Technicals: Overhead resistance continues to keep a lid on rally attempts and Crude once again could not settle above the 50-day moving average. Our Pivot today is 40.79-40.97, encompassing the 200-day moving average and our momentum indicator. This pocket will prove to be a battleground and while above here the bulls certainly have an edge on a breakout attempt. First key support at 40.40 and a break below will create added selling.
Resistance: 41.21**, 41.50-41.74***, 42.02**, 43.56-44.33****
Support: 40.40**, 39.33-39.36***, 38.76**, 38.06*, 36.93-37.06****, 34.82***
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1911.7, up 5.3
Fundamentals: Gold continues to battle at and above the 2011 record highs in a very constructive manner. Although we do not believe the breakout is looming near-term due to a soft seasonal time of year and the lack of follow through historically into and around the U.S. election, we do believe that traders can still position with a bullish long-term thesis in mind. There are many ways to position for such and we are working tirelessly to cater strategies to the needs of our clients. Please feel free to contact our trade desk at 312-278-0500 to see how we can help you.
Technicals: First key resistance at 1915-1917 continues to be a tough area for Gold to hold out above given that major three-star resistance overhead at 1933-1937 has kept added buying at bay. Our momentum indicator comes in at 1908 and the bulls want to hold out above here and major three-star support at 1902-1905 in order to avoid a consolidation lower into 1880.
Resistance: 1915-1917**, 1925*, 1933-1937***, 1950-1958***
Support: 1902-1905***, 1877.1-1880***, 1866.3*, 1851**, 1845.4****, 1829.8***
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Blue Line Futures
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.