Morning Express | Technical & Fundamental Landscape | Stocks, Oil, and Gold
E-mini S&P (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3300, up 11.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 11,086, up 41.75
Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks are set to open higher and commodity prices have surged amid the Dollar weakening overnight. Disney reported lackluster earnings after the bell, but markets are keying off the consumer’s willingness to spend; the company achieved 100 million total streaming subscribers. From that, their Disney+ service notched 60 million subscribers, hitting the low-end of their 60 to 90 million goal by 2024. The stock is set to open +6.5%. The risk-on move comes upon progress in Washington. Senate Republicans and House Democrats are inching closer to unleashing fresh fiscal measures tallying at least $1 trillion. After weeks of deadlock, Bloomberg reported both sides as having made concessions and U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin as saying he expects a bipartisan deal by the end of the week.
Jobs are in focus this morning with the private ADP survey ahead of Friday’s big Nonfarm Payroll report. ADP posted 167,000 jobs gained in July versus expectations of 1.5 million. In April, ADP said 19.557 million jobs were lost. In the ensuing three months (May, June, and July), they have now reported 5.6 million jobs recovered. The closely watched ISM Non-Manufacturing data is due at 9:00 am CT.
Sentiment seems little concerned about boiling U.S.-China tensions. The U.S. announced Health Secretary Alex Azar will travel to Taiwan in the coming days in what is the highest-level visit in decades. Taiwan, officially known as the Republic of China, is claimed by the communist nation. Many speculate China will soon tighten its grip on the region just as it did Hong Kong. China is reportedly urging the U.S to “not send the wrong message to Taiwan secessionists” in a trip that certainly heats up an already tense relationship between the two world powers. Furthermore, delegates from the U.S and China are expected to meet mid-month to reevaluate the lauded Phase One trade deal in what could prove to be an inflection point as the precedent set by TikTok also hangs in the balance.
Technicals: Price action in the S&P battled at and above major three-star resistance at 3284.50-3288.50 for much of the session before surging into settlement. The NQ similarly battled at its pocket of major three-star resistance at 11,002-11,058 before setting a record into high settlement. The S&P appears to be on a collision course with the damage from the February 21st gap close at 3339.25. We see this as extremely strong resistance and one that we do not expect price action to chew through upon the first test. Our momentum indicator is rising and aligns with yesterday’s 3300 settlement to bring strong first key support. Our Pivot is previous resistance at 3312 and the tape is arguably in a melt-up above here. As for the NQ, first key resistance comes in at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed each morning.
Crude Oil (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 41.70, up 0.69
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is breaking out above the March 6th gap close from when Saudi Arabia announced a price war over that weekend. It is risk-on, a fresh wave of U.S. Dollar weakness is boosting commodity prices and the appetite across the board. Inventories are in focus and providing a tailwind to Crude’s fresh leg higher. Last night, the private API survey reported a surprise draw of 8.587 mb when only -3 mb was expected. Last week, the API reported -6.829 and when added to -8.587 mb, it totals -15.4 mb. The EIA reported a draw of 10.612 mb last week and added to expectations of -3 mb this week, API really was not much of a surprise. However, the headlines are driving the action coupled with broad strength. Last week’s report was highlighted by a drop in imports and surge in exports, in the wake of a large deviation from expectations, these numbers could be the key. Still, headline sentiment is in the driver’s seat.
Technicals: Crude Oil has ripped out above rare major four-star resistance at 42.64, the September contract gap close from March 6th. This will be our Pivot today until a close out above is sealed. The 200-day moving average comes in at 43.92 and this does pose a headwind, but the path of least resistance upon constructive closes ultimately points to a move to ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed each morning.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2021, up 34.7
Fundamentals: Gold has torn through the psychological $2000 landmark, trading to an overnight high of 2060.2. A fresh wave of weakness in the U.S. Dollar has set the stage for a bullish wave in commodities with Gold and Silver leading the way. The private ADP Payroll survey whiffed on expectations with 167,000 jobs created versus expectations of 1.5 mm. This certainly does not knock Gold off its bullish leg. Up next is ISM Non-Manufacturing at 9:00 am CT. Traders should keep an eye on U.S. Treasuries as they are getting tagged this morning, if anything can slow the rally it would be continued pressure on this front (yields rising). Although the 10-year yield yesterday hit the lowest level since the March 9th panic.
Technicals: Gold has been in a melt-up phase since July 21st and after consolidating constructively just below 2000 for the last week it ripped higher yesterday. Our next level of resistance comes in at 2054 which has slowed the leg, but major three-star resistance does not come in until ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed each morning.
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