Morning Express | Technical & Fundamental Action | Stocks, Oil, and Gold
E-mini S&P (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3316, up 16.00
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 11,091.75, up 5.75
Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks are higher on the week and clinging to those gains with jobs in focus. The NQ set another fresh record yesterday whereas overnight the S&P achieved the highest level since the scene of the crime February 21st and the Russell 2000 small caps hit the highest since February 27th. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are due at 7:30 am CT, but just as important are the Continuing Claims which peaked just below 25 million May 21st. After slipping below 17 million two weeks ago they rose last week. This comes ahead of tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payroll Report for July. Yesterday, the private ADP survey showed vastly less jobs created last month than expected at 167,000 versus 1.5 million. Analysts expect tomorrow’s official results to show 1.6 million jobs created with an Unemployment Rate dropping to 10.5% from its peak of 14.7%.
Unprecedented stimulus measures out of Washington has buoyed the economy and jobs picture from the depths of the pandemic. Expectations for industry specific layoffs such as airlines are mounting or small businesses once’s they’ve exhausted loans. On the other side of the coin, some individuals are choosing not to work because they are making more money on unemployment. Congress is attempting to thread the needle on these and other topics. The market is certainly anticipating a bipartisan deal to get done. Congress always finds a way to come through in the end, right? With critical elections only three months away, some officials are holding ground a bit stronger. Friday’s deadline is looming.
Technicals: Early price action in the S&P has backed away from rare major four-star resistance after hitting a high of 3329.25. The NQ has struggled below its 100% range extension, first key resistance, at 11,187. Small caps, banks, industrials led the way yesterday and the Russell 2000 stuck its nose higher overnight but is about 1% from that level ahead of the bell. Overall, without tech gaining additional ground this week the rally feels unenthusiastic. Both the S&P and NQ have dipped below our momentum indicators at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Future to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed each morning.
Crude Oil (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 42.19, up 0.49
Fundamentals: Crude Oil posted an impressive session but could not hold the bulk of its gains yesterday. There was a clear run-up into the EIA data with a path of least resistance higher in markets broadly coupled with mounting expectations for a continued sharp drop in stockpiles. The EIA reported Crude inventories fell by 7.373 mb, more than the 3 mb expected and totaling a two-week drop of 18 mb. Ultimately, Crude Oil topped upon this report despite estimated production falling by 100,000 bpd which signals much was already baked in. Exports have certainly had an impact in the headline results and furthermore, a weaker U.S. Dollar has influenced such by providing better purchasing power aboard. After jumping by 4.079 mb in the week of July 24th, Exports increased by another 1.18 mb last week totaling 5.259 mb.
Technicals: Crude Oil stretched to a high of 43.52 yesterday, just shy of the 200-day moving average at 43.92. The gap from the March 6th close at 42.64 continues to be a crucial area of resistance though, price action did not settle out above there yesterday and this rare major four-star resistance level will remain our Pivot; above here, the bulls will try to stretch gains. The dip into this morning has responded to major three-star support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Future to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed each morning.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2049.3, up 28.3
Fundamentals: Gold hit a new high again this morning gaining a little more than 1%. Silver is doing much of the heavy lifting though gaining more than 5% as it surges near what has become a psychological target at $30. Jobs and Washington are in focus over the next 24 hours. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims both came in better than expected this morning, but better U.S. economic data has not translated into a strong U.S. Dollar and that is what will matter for Gold and Silver at these elevated levels. Nonfarm Payroll is on deck, due at 7:30 am CT tomorrow. Congress continues to wrangle over a fifth fiscal stimulus bill as Friday’s general deadline looms. The rumblings point to some progress and potentially a bill totaling $1.5 to $2 trillion upon a compromise. Dallas Fed President Kaplan speaks at 9:00 am CT. The 10-year Treasury yield is edging back to 50 bp, not confirming the risk-on strength across the equity landscape, lower yields will support Gold.
Technicals: Since July 30th, Gold is attempting to achieve a higher low for the 5th straight session. In fact, Gold is trying to achieve a higher low than the previous session for 14 out of the last 15 (July 30th being the only). Daily higher lows will feed the run. Yesterday’s low was 2027.5, but we have first key support at 2041.9, yesterday’s midday higher low. Above 2041.9 and furthermore our Pivot of ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Future to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed each morning.
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