Morning Express | Trade the Macro Markets with Actionable Insights provided by Bill Baruch
E-mini S&P (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3579.25, up 52.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,411.50, 99.00
Fundamentals: Yesterday was certainly not the top as U.S. benchmarks batted away a short-lived wave of selling early to surge into the close. For the S&P and NQ, it was fresh record highs. Picking a top is a fool’s errand, but we are suggesting it is near. Between now and the Monday after September’s quadruple witching, we do expect U.S. benchmarks sharply lower. Ahead of the bell, some of the big tech leaders are down heavily this morning. Tesla -7% and Apple -2.5%, whereas Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft and semiconductors (SOXX) are all down 1%. Speaking of those chipmakers, China announced a plan to invest $1.4 trillion in domestic tech with a focus on semiconductors. The news is weighing on U.S. competition in another quiet reminder that U.S.-China relations have continued to deteriorate.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims were better than expected at 881,000 versus 950,000. Continuing Claims also beat. Both came in at their lowest levels since the onset of the pandemic. Next up is the final August read on Services PMI at 8:45 am CT. With higher anticipation, we look to ISM Non-Manufacturing at 9:00 am CT.
We have covered the U.S. Dollar and Euro as they tie together relative to data such as inflation, and central bank policy. ECB Executive Board member Schnabel speaks at 10:00 am CT. In her latest appearance, on Monday, she said there is no reason for the ECB to add more monetary stimulus. The following day, CPI data showed a YoY contraction. We look forward to her comments now.
Technicals: Price action ripped into the bell yesterday and the S&P tagged a high of 3587. This will now be an overhead major three-star resistance as it traded a lower high on today’s session. In front of that is key resistance at yesterday’s settlement. Previous resistance at 3564.75 will align with our momentum indicator at 3566 this morning as our Pivot; sustained price action below here will encourage selling. Still, traders want to be mindful of what has become late session buying after the inability to move lower. Yesterday’s initial high will be first key support and then we look to a battleground area through yesterday’s morning at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed each morning.
Crude Oil (October)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 41.51, down 1.25
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is sharply lower from the $43 mark despite a headline bullish inventory report yesterday where Crude stocks fell by nearly 10 mb, the sixth straight weekly drop. Although more than expected, the fact it came due to last week’s one-two punch storm disruption, it was accompanied by a grain of salt. The strengthening U.S. Dollar from this week’s new low cannot go ignored as it has pressured commodities across the board. Lastly, there is news that China will slow purchases which is a complete 180 from last week’s narrative. The news comes in part due to already expanding inventory levels. Ironically, as the U.S. Dollar strengthens.
Technicals: We turned cautiously Bearish yesterday and price action has followed through, breaking below the August 21st low 41.46. This now aligns to create major three-star resistance with the continuous 200-day moving average at 41.58 and are momentum indicator; a close back above there is near-term bullish. First key support aligns ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed each morning.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1944.7, down 34.2
Fundamentals: Gold broke down yesterday as the U.S. Dollar strengthened, but the metal tested a crucial level of technical support overnight and is responding at the start of U.S. hours. We have said time and time again, that you cannot chase Gold and instead must pick your spots to buy. ISM Non-Manufacturing is coming up at 9:00 am CT and tomorrow brings Nonfarm Payroll, if you are trading Gold, you must know what the Dollar is doing.
Technicals: Once Gold chewed through support at 1954-1957.5, a test to major three-star support at 1928-1932 was inevitable. Last night’s low was 1932 and Gold is now consolidating. Our momentum indicator comes in at 1947 and this aligns with settlement at 1944.7 to become a battleground on the session. Continued action above here paves the way to major three-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels emailed each morning.
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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.