Silver Falling, Treasury Yields Rising | Stocks, Crude Oil, & Metals | Morning Express

E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)


S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled 3765.75, 60.50


NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 13,236.50, up 325.25


Fundamentals: U.S. benchmarks steadied the ship yesterday and continued their rebound overnight; all four are up nearly 1% ahead of the opening bell. Today’s economic calendar is rather quiet, we look to NY Fed President Williams speaking at 1:00 pm CT. The U.S. Dollar Index is trading at two month highs and finding tailwinds today from underwhelming Eurozone Q4 GDP. However, the Chinese Yuan against the Dollar is paring some of yesterday’s losses. U.S. Dollar strength is not the only headwind to risk-assets, the Treasury market is lower. The 10-year yield is back above 1.10%, and although this is not a true headwind right here, right now, a decisive move through 1.15/1.20% will raise caution.

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On the earnings front, Exxon is grabbing headlines with a beat. This comes on the heels of merger talks with Chevron and tailwinds from higher Crude prices. The stock is up 2% despite a $20.1 billion loss in the fourth quarter. Among others to report in the Energy space were BP and Marathon Petroleum. BP is down 4% after widely missing estimates. On a brighter note, Marathon Petroleum is up 2.5% after topping revenue expectations. Additionally, UPS is up nearly 5% after crushing estimates and Pfizer is edging green after missing income but beating on revenue. (Blue Line Capital owns MPC, UPS, and PFE). Amazon and Alphabet headline a deluge after the bell.


Technicals: Price action quickly sliced through major three-star resistance yesterday in each the S&P and NQ at 3735-3740.75 and 13,159-13,186; this paved the way for a healthier and more directional rebound. The S&P is now out above our Pivot at 3779.25-3783 and our momentum indicator is catching up but trailing at 3773 this morning. Although the tape faces first key resistance at 3801.50, steady action above this Pivot paints a path of least resistance to our major three-star level at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.

Crude Oil (March)


Yesterday’s close: Settled at 53.55, up 1.35


Fundamentals: For the last week and a half, we have said that a decisive move outside of our technical range will create directional tailwinds. This is happening right now as Crude is testing $55 and trading at the highest level in more than a year. The OPEC+ technical meeting is taking place and there seems to be a supportive narrative from the cartel planning to leave production in March untouched as Saudi Arabia has individually cut 1 mbpd. Furthermore, they project inventories to be drawn down in each month through 2021. All things considered; we also cannot ignore tailwinds courtesy of the equity market rebound.


Technicals: We cannot ignore this technical breakout above major three-star resistance at 53.60-53.94 and how it paints a path of least resistance to our next major three-star level at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.

Gold (April) / Silver (March)


Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1863.9, up 13.6


Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 29.418, up 2.504


Fundamentals: The metals complex is getting slammed as enthusiasm not only fades but JPMorgan downgrades the miners, citing short-term profit. Is the move done? Although we certainly do not believe so, we said here yesterday, “you should not YOLO or HODL; be smart right here, right now and reduce your position, take some profits”. Outside of a failure in Silver to breakout above $31 and JPMorgan’s tactical maneuver, Treasury yields are gaining for the fourth straight day since the Fed meeting and the U.S. Dollar Index is at two-month highs; each are significantly weighing on the complex. Our desk is available at 312-278-0500 or info@bluelinefutures.com, contact us to discuss your situation in the metals and see how we can help.


Technicals: There was nothing bullish about Gold’s tape yesterday; it very disappointedly hung around and lingered lower through the overnight before being slammed this morning. Price action is now testing major three-star support at 1829.9-1831 and it must respond. As for Silver, it has so far failed at our rare major four-star resistance at 30.00-30.73. The reversal now pins major three-star support ,aligning multiple technical levels at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.


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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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