The Early Look; ECB, Dollar, Commodities | Morning Express


Dollar Index battling at 50-dma showing overhead resistance from breakdown


Gold slips from 50-dma after response to rare major four star support, a line in the sand


- ECB Policy decision: held rates steady as expected and reaffirmed will remain at present levels or lower until 2% inflation in sight.

- ECB to slow Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) at a “moderate pace” and conduct asset purchases with a total envelop of 1.85T Euros until the end of March 2022.

- ECB will leave monthly pace of Asset Purchase Programme (APP) steady at 20B Euros per month.

- ECB President Lagarde holds press conference at 7:30 am CT

- ECB also playing transitory inflation card, “may moderately exceed goal for transitory period”.

- China PPI last night highest since 2008, though CPI was below expectations. However, we all know that PPI is a leading indicator for CPI.

- Breaking at 7:20 am CT: China said to curb pressure in rising raw material prices. Will release Oil from Nation Crude Oil Reserves for the first time.

- U.S. Jobless Claims due at 7:30 am CT. Both Initial and Continuing Claims expected at new pandemic lows of 335,000 and 2,744,000. Initial Claims crushed expectations at 310,000.

-Atlanta Fed President Bostic, a 2021 voter known on the hawkish end, said due to weaker data recently to not expect a taper announcement later this month. Gold reacted positively to these comments. However, he still believes the Fed will be able to taper later this year.

- San Francisco Fed President Daly, a 2021 voter and centrist, speaks at 10:05 am CT. Fed Governor Bowman, a slight dove, speaks at noon CT, and NY Fed President Williams speaks at 1:00 pm CT.

- U.S. Treasury auctions $24 billion 30-year Bonds at noon CT. Yesterday’s 10-year auction had solid demand.

- EIA inventory data due at 10:00 am CT. Expectations are -4.612 mb Crude, -3.39 mb Gasoline, and -2.617 mb Distillates

- Private API survey, Crude was light but massive draw of 6.414 mb Gasoline was the highlight Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning. E-mini S&P (September) / NQ (Sept)


S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4512.50, down 6.75

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 15,620, down 54.75

- Wave of weakness yesterday, first half intraday, held support perfectly; major three-star support in S&P at 4488.50-4492.25 and key support in NQ at 15,517-15,551. Sellers must take this out in order for exhaustion to keep playing into a healthy pullback.

- Overnight lows retested these supports and buyers responded

- Pivots align with our momentum indicators and will work as a point of balance on the session; continued action above 4506 in the S&P will encourage a move to resistance at 4519.25-4521

Bias: Neutral Resistance: 4512.50**, 4519.25-4521**, 4532-4534.50**, 4540.25-4543.50***, 4549.50***, 4575.50**

Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning. Crude Oil (October)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 69.30, up 0.95

- Reversal from major three-star resistance and session high of 69.89 high on China’s announcement on released from strategic reserves noted above

- High bar set for Gasoline draw with API’s -6.414

- First key support at 68.60-68.82 seen as critical; a break below and sustained action below will encourage a move to the lows on the week at minimum.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 69.64-69.99***, 70.61**, 71.29-71.69***

Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning. Gold (December) / Silver (December)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1798.5, down 35.2

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 24.373, down 0.429

- Gold regained $1800 on U.S. Dollar weakness through ECB announcement and Atlanta Fed President Bostic comments. U.S. Dollar ticking up on Initial Jobless Claims beat and Gold losing a bit of ground. High of 1803.4 was perfect test to newly created .382 retracement from yesterday’s low against rare major four-star support and Friday’s high at 1803.7

- Silver bounce met with major three-star resistance at 24.28-24.40, aligns multiple levels including the .382 from overnight low to Friday’s high and the August 6th settlement.

- Weakness yesterday in both Gold and Silver held crucial levels of support, a break below will signal a near to intermediate-term failure.

- Pivots align with our momentum indicators and will bring a point of balance on the session.

Bias: Neutral

Resistance: 1803.7**, 1808.9-1810***, 1822.5**, 1835-1840***

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