The Job Picture in the Spotlight | Morning Express
E-mini S&P (March) / NQ (March)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 3816.75, down 50.75
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 12,681.75, down 373.50
Fundamentals: Yesterday was many things, but it was not a bloodbath. Amid a sea of red, Energies were +1.43%, Financials +0.75%, and Industrials +0.07%. This highlights the rotation from growth to value that has been taking place since September and the recent surge in rates has only been a tailwind. At the same time, it is wrong to think, “stick a fork in tech, it’s done”. There are ways to carefully balance a portfolio and prepare for such shifts. As we look ahead, we still believe that Apple, Microsoft and Salesforce are staples within a portfolio for years to come. Do they always need to be your largest holdings? Simply put, that answer is no. Please email us at firstname.lastname@example.org with a convenient time to connect if you would like to discuss our portfolio balance and your unique situation.
Nonfarm Payroll is on deck for tomorrow, but first this morning’s weekly Jobless Claims improved from last week and beat expectations. We find tomorrow’s jobs report as critical as ever. It comes at a time when economic activity is steadfastly improving, but the jobs landscape has been stagnant. Fed Chair Powell, who speaks today at 11:05 am CT today, has said real Unemployment is closer to 10%. Without full employment or a pace of improvement in job growth that signals full employment is around the corner, it paves the way for added fiscal and monetary policy. A strong read tomorrow would also reinvigorate rates, theoretically pricing in a taper of such accommodative policy, and would likely hurt risk-assets over the coming days and weeks. Yesterday’s ISM Non-Manufacturing missed by a wide margin, yet it still showed steady expansion at 55.3. Let us not forget that read, is it an inflection point as the services industry could be the first shoe to drop in a snapback recovery. Lastly, Factory Orders are due at 9:00 am CT.
Technicals: The S&P and NQ decisively took out levels of strong support that began to Neutralize our more Bullish Bias. What was major three-star support at 3858.50-3863.50 yesterday and defining such a Bias is now major three-star resistance at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Crude Oil (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 61.28, up 1.53
Fundamentals: The OPEC+ meeting is underway and Crude Oil surged on comments from the Saudi Oil Minister this morning, he said “OPEC+ must leave some powder dry”. He added that although the Oil market has improved, extra cuts from Saudi Arabia “accelerated” the balancing and uncertainty persists. Price action has settled in from a high of 62.70 and we expect volatility to continue as the meeting plays out. Yesterday’s EIA data was certainly distorted, but it did estimate that 300,000 bpd came back online, and that U.S. production has come back to 10 mbpd. Overall, the market has remained very elevated with premium due to the Texas outages and ahead of OPEC+.
Technicals: Price action has certainly responded to major three-star support this week and this has helped bring added tailwinds to an already strong market. Our Pivot today is 61.50-61.80 and this level continues to be a crucial turning point. Our momentum indicator is catching up at ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
Gold (April) / Silver (May)
Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1715.8, down 17.8
Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 26.387, down 0.492
Fundamentals: Gold and Silver remain weak and selling across equity markets has not helped their situation as both are trading with more relevance to the risk-landscape than safe havens. Rising yields into Wednesday’s session and a stable U.S. Dollar have certainly set the wheels in motion for new swing lows. This was achieved yesterday in Gold, but the metal held such overnight. However, Silver did stick its neck lower last night before snapping back. Today’s weekly Jobless Claims improved from last week and were better than expected. This mounts expectations for a solid Nonfarm Payroll report tomorrow, such would continue to price in a Fed taper and weigh on the metals. Fed Chair Powell speaks at 11:05 am C today.
Technicals: Although we do find strong intermediate to long-term value at these levels, neither Gold or Silver has done anything to attract fresh buyers. Gold continues to battle at our rare major four-star support at 1704-1710, whereas Silver has twice now stuck its next below major three-star support at 25.968-26.15, a level that aligns with the start of the “short-squeeze” talk. We must see Gold trade above ... Sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire fundamental and technical outlook, actionable bias, and proprietary levels for the markets you trade emailed each morning.
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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.