Understanding the Risk Landscape | Morning Express

- Fed Chair Powell boosted risk-assets on Friday; a taper coming this year but does not correlate with a rate hike. Read Sunday’s Top Three Things to Watch this Week, with a Jackson Hole recap.


- Hurricane Ida pummels Louisiana, shutting down power, refining capacity, and a disruption through the Mississippi River.


- U.S. Dollar Index at a two week low on heels of Powell and ahead of data heavy week; PMIs/ISMs and Jobs.


- China Manufacturing PMI due at 8:00 pm CT tonight, expected at 50.2, slowest since February 2020.


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E-mini S&P (September) / NQ (Sept)

S&P, last week’s close: Settled at 4505.50, up 39.00 on Friday and 68.50 on the week


NQ, last week’s close: Settled at 15,426.50, up 151.75 on Friday and 339.75 on the week


- Can ‘friendly Friday’ follow though on ‘turnaround Monday’? Last week certainly did


- Momentum indicators are rising to align with settlement and previous resistance for each S&P and NQ as our Pivots today; continued action above here is Bullish


- Strong support aligns at Thursday’s settlements and Friday’s opening bell lows; S&P 4473.75 as well as 4462.50-4466.50 and NQ at 15,255-15,280 with major three-star below at 15,124-15,150; these are a line in the sand on the week.

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Bias: Neutral/Bullish


Resistance: 4525.75***, 4540.25-4543.50***


Pivot: 4505.50-4507


Support: 4498-4500**, 4492.25**, 4473.75**, 4462.50-4466.50***, 4454.25**, 4434-4437***

NQ (September)


Resistance: 15,458**, 15,490-15,500**, 15,634***


Pivot: 15,403-15,426***


Support: 15,358**, 15,255-15,280**, 15,124-15,150***, 15,086**, 14,997-15,001***

Crude Oil (October)


Last week’s close: Settled at 68.74, up 1.32 on Friday and 6.60 on the week


- Tremendous damage left behind from Hurricane Ida. However, prices of Crude and Natural Gas tend to rise into impact but recede immediately. Not only a buy the rumor, sell the news, but because of the reduced demand with power outages and evacuations.


- Crude and Natural Gas spiked on the open both left spinning tops on the hourly. Already has had a bearish impact on prices, but a failure to retake this level today would leave door open for continued weakness.


- Pivot and point of balance encompass our momentum indicator


- Today’s low was met with strong major three-star support at 67.42-67.77

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Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 69.02-69.39**, 69.64-69.79***


Pivot: 68.25-68.70


Support: 67.42-67.77***, 66.62-66.92**, 66.00**, 65.64-65.69***

Gold (December) / Silver (December)


Gold, last week’s close: Settled at 1819.5, up 24.3 on Friday and 35.5 on the week


Silver, last week’s close: Settled at 24.11 up 0.514 on Friday and 0.95 on the week


- Gold highest close since August 2nd.


- Silver outside bullish close on Friday, but still faces major three-star resistance from the August 6th scene of the crime.


- Pivot and point of balance are our momentum indicators for each


- Major three-star support are previous resistance; continued action above here supports Friday’s move.


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Bias: Neutral


Resistance: 1822.5**, 1835-1840***


Pivot: 1815


Support: 1808.9***, 1798-1801.5**, 1791.4**, 1780-1784***

Silver (Dec)


Resistance: 24.24-24.38***, 24.68-24.85***, 25.64***


Pivot: 24.04


Support: 23.80-23.88***, 23.30-23.42***


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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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