Yes, this chart again. 30-year Bond yield battling at 1.9-2.0%, directional break will move markets.
30-year Bond futures testing same trend line as resistance, but not violated. Price is inverse of yield.
The 5yr vs the 30yr yield curve is flattening into a support level.
Weekly chart in the Dollar Index going back to 2011 low. Big breakout if confirmed on the week. Tailwind to 96.00-96.50.
- JOLTs Job Openings and Michigan Consumer data are due at 9:00 am CT.
- September Job Openings are expected to fall for the second month to 10.3 million, just below the 11.098 peak in July and 60% above pre-pandemic levels.
- November Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Expectations are both expected to improve to 72.4 and 70.0 from 77.7 and 67.9, respectively. Inflation Expectations in October hit 4.8%, the highest since 2008.
- U.S. Dollar Index is breaking out, will it confirm on a weekly close? Chart above.
- U.S. 30-year and 5-year Treasury spread flattened by 16 basis points this week. Approaching big support level from 2018 flattener. Chart above.
- U.S. 30-year Bond violated big level of support, whereas futures did not violate resistance. Big showdown at 1.8-2.0%; a break above 2.0% likely to pressure risk-assets. A break below begs the questions, what does the Bond market know with this bull flattener?
- Flattening yield curve exudes slower growth prospects.
- Tensions rising in Eastern Europe.
- Russia amasses troops at the Ukrainian border. U.S. has warns of potential invasion.
- Belarus is sending migrants to the Polish border and threatened to stop Russian gas supplies through its pipeline after EU sanctions following elections. E-mini S&P (December) / NQ (December)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4643, up 1.00 NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 16,022.75, up 42.25
- Maintain our outright Bullish Bias because price action continues to hold out above rare major four-star support at 4620-4627.
- Relevant to recent pullbacks, unenthusiastic dip buying so far.
- S&P did cover 4642 gap perfectly ahead of close yesterday, but not a tick more.
- However, momentum indicators are pointed lower through yesterday and have now flattened out. Continued price action above 4651 in S&P will be supportive to higher prices.
- Russell 2000 hit 50% retracement from Wednesday low back to Monday’s record is 2419.6; stalled here perfectly yesterday. A move out above here brings tailwind to higher prices.
- NQ lingering at major three-star support at 15,957-16,000. If buyers do not show up early, it could set a tone that drags other indices.
- Bullish confirmations across all timeframes upon a close above ... Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you! Bias: Resistance: Pivot: Support: NQ (December) Resistance: Pivot: Support: Crude Oil (December) Yesterday’s close: Settled at 81.59, up 0.25 - We maintain a more Bullish outlook because of our longer-term expectations, however, price action very subdued.
- Crude Oil retested $85 highs this week, but Gasoline and Heating Oil much less enthusiastic.
- Heating Oil, potential outside bearish week developing on close below 2.398
- Crude Oil, potential outside bearish week developing on close below 78.25. - Keep a pulse on Russia and Belarus. Conflict could drive prices higher. - Market stability maintained upon continued close above Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you! Bias: Resistance: Pivot: Support: Gold (December) / Silver (December) Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1863.9, up 15.6 Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 25.301, up 0.529 - Gold price action has stalled over last two sessions against major three-star resistance at 1868.4. - Silver has stuck nose above major three-star resistance at 25.17-25.22, but lacking follow through. - Both strong closes yesterday but subdued overnight. - Metals have risen with the U.S. Dollar this week. Unlikely to continue. Who will win out? - 30-year Bond at a critical level. Rising yields/lower prices weigh on Gold. - Momentum indicator and point of balance on the session at ... Click here to get our (FULL) daily reports emailed to you! Bias: Resistance: Pivot: Support:
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