Grain Express 6/28/22
Posted: June 28, 2022, 8:21 a.m.
Corn (September)
Seasonal Trends in Play: Short September corn from 6/13-7/27. This has been profitable for 13 of the last 15 years with the average gain being roughly 33 cents, or $1,650 per one 5,000-bushel contract.
Fundamentals: Yesterday’s crop progress showed deteriorating crop conditions (though still better than last year at this time) with good/excellent ratings at 67%, a 3% decline. This has led to overnight relief as we inch closer to Thursday’s USDA report which will cover planted acres and quarterly stocks. The range of estimates for acres comes in from 88.4-91.0 million. In March the USDA was at 89.5. The average estimate for US corn stocks as of June 1 is 4.345 billion bushels. In last years report we were at 4.111.
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Soybeans (August)
Fundamentals: Soybean futures are higher this morning after yesterday’s crop progress report showed a drop in good/excellent conditions of 3%. Keep in mind that we are still 5% better than where we were at this time last year. All eyes will be on Thursday’s USDA report. The range of estimates for planted acres is 89.2-92.4 million, the USDA was at 91.0 in March. The average estimate for US soybean ending stocks as of June 1 is .954 billion bushels. Last year at this time we were at .769.
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Wheat
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