Payrolls Imminent | Morning Express 08/5/2022

Posted: Aug. 4, 2022, 8:50 a.m.

Nonfarm Payroll is due at 7:30 am CT. Expectations are for 250,000 jobs created in July with wage growth increasing +0.3% MoM an 4.9% YoY. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain steady at 3.6%.

There is currently a 60.5% probability the Federal Reserve hikes by 50 basis points in September. The remaining 39.5% is for a 75 basis point hike. Through yearend, there is an 86% probability the Fed hikes at least 100 basis points and 40.8% for at least 125 basis points worth of hikes.

Do not miss yesterday's Midday Market minute with a preview of today's Nonfarm Payrolls.

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Sept 10-yr futures, per Midday Market Minute discussion

 

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U.S. 10-yr yield, per Midday Market Minute discussion

 

E-mini S&P (September) / NQ (September)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4152.25, down 4.00

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 13,327.00, up 55.00

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NQ (September)

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Crude Oil (September)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 88.54, down 2.12

- 200-day moving average comes in at 88.81

- 88.43 is the front month contract .618 from March spike high to November low.

- Momentum indicator is slopping lower at 89.05, must move above for short-term momentum shift. Has not been above it since ahead of EIA data Wednesday.

- Our Bias will become Neutral for the moment upon a weekly close at the current level.

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Gold (December) / Silver (September)

Gold, yesterday’s closeSettled at 1806.9, up 30.5

Silver, yesterday’s closeSettled at 20.122, up 0.228

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πŸ”’ You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.


Crude Oil (September)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 88.54, down 2.12

- 200-day moving average comes in at 88.81

- 88.43 is the front month contract .618 from March spike high to November low.

- Momentum indicator is slopping lower at 89.05, must move above for short-term momentum shift. Has not been above it since ahead of EIA data Wednesday.

- Our Bias will become Neutral for the moment upon a weekly close at the current level.

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πŸ”’ You need to be a Premium User to unlock this content. Click here to unlock.



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