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Headline CPI Front and Center | Morning Express 08/10/2022

Posted: Aug. 10, 2022, 7:26 a.m.

U.S. CPI for July is due at 7:30 am CT. More emphasis has been put on the headline number, over the Core read that excludes food and energy. The Fed has said these are the prices realized in everyday life. Expectations are for headline +0.2-0.3% MoM and +8.7-8.8% YoY down from 1.3% and 9.1%, respectively in June. Core is expected at +0.5% and 6.1%, from +0.7% and 5.9% in June.

There is currently a 69.5% probability the Federal Reserve hikes 75 basis points in September. The remaining 30.5% is for a 50 basis point hike. These probabilities have flipped after the strong Nonfarm Payrolls report last Friday. Through yearend, there is a 76.7% probability the Fed hikes at least 125 basis points and a 29.3% for at least 150 basis points worth of hikes.

Inflation data from China overnight came in lower than expected; CPI YoY at 2.7% versus 2.9%, 0.5% MoM inline, and PPI at 4.2% versus 4.8%. The softer than expected read will be seen as not hindering stimulative actions.

Do not miss yesterday’s Midday Market Minute, with a preview of today’s CPI data.

E-mini S&P (September) / NQ (September)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4124.50, down 17.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 13,031.50, down 151.75

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NQ (September)

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Crude Oil (September)

Yesterday’s close:  Settled at 90.50, down 0.26

- Private API survey after the bell yesterday showed a surprise 2.156 mb build in Crude, with -0.627 mb Gasoline, and -1376 mb Distillates.

- Expectations for today’s EIA report are for +0.073 mb Crude, -0.633 mb Gasoline, and -0.667 mb Distillates.

- Yesterday’s spike was attributed to flows via Druzhba pipeline; these are set to resume “shortly”. The news has weighed on price cation.

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Gold (December) / Silver (September)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1812.3, up 7.1

Silver, yesterday’s closeSettled at 20.482, down 0.132

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Silver (September)

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