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The Most Important Chart in the World | Morning Express 08/11/2022

Posted: Aug. 12, 2022, 8:41 a.m.

- Do not miss our daily Midday Market Minute from yesterday; disinflation, bonds tumble, bears squeezed, Goldman reaffirms Crude Oil targets, and much more!

- China New Loans data for July was released this morning and came in sharply below expectations at 679 billion yuan versus 1,100 billion expected, and down from 2,81 billion in June. Copper and Crude Oil took notice, each fell 2% on the release.

- A slate of economic data from the U.K., including Q2 GDP, Manufacturing/Industrial Production, and Business Investment, all came in better than expected.

- Some disinflation MoM in Spanish CPI and HICP, slower than expected. French CPI/HICP in line.

- Eurozone Industrial Production crushed expectations at +0.7% MoM versus +0.2% expected and +2.4% YoY versus +0.8%. Comes on the heels of firm regional reads.

- U.S. Import/Export Price Index fell -1.4% and -3.3%, more than the -1.0 and -1.1 expected. This is the first drop in prices since December.

- Fresh Michigan Consumer data for August is on deck. The very politically infused and volatile read is expected to improve from July.

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30-year Bond futures daily chart, with 21-day moving average broken on yesterday's tumble. Now testing .382 support. Two-decade trend line overhead, failed back-test highlighted here last week. This is the most important chart right now.

E-mini S&P (September) / NQ (September)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 4209.75, down 0.25

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 13,311.25, down 80.75

- Our next upside target of 4242-4268 was achieved perfectly and rejected the two-day surge.

- Bonds tumbled sharply after breaking trend line support (highlighted in chart), weighing on stocks.

- An S&P close below major three-star support at 4204.75-4210 would lead to a failed breakout and encourage selling (a combination of profit taking as well as repositioning from bears).

- Price action in both the S&P and NQ must hold at and above our momentum indicator, which is our Pivot and point of balance on the day, in order to keep tape buoyant through close, coming in at 4224 and 13,380.

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NQ (September)

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Crude Oil (September)

Yesterday’s close:   Settled at 94.34, up 2.41

- China New Loan data, highlighted above, smacked the tape at 5:00 am CT.

- Keep an ear to the ground, progress developing for Iran Nuclear Deal.

- Price action is holding major three-star support at 92.43-92.69, this is the first of three waves of major three-star support defining a rebound.

- Similarly, there are strong waves of resistance in order to begin repairing the damage.

- Near-term exhaustion? Price action is currently below our momentum indicator, aligned to create our Pivot and point of balance, coming in at 93.70.

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Gold (December) / Silver (September)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1807.2, down 6.5

Silver, yesterday’s closeSettled at 20.349 down 3.93

- Bond rout weighs on precious metals, offsetting U.S. Dollar weakness on the week.

- USDCNH muted despite China New Loan whiff, helping keep precious metals from slipping through support.

- Gold has regained our Pivot and point of balance after rejecting support early in the session, aligns critical levels with our momentum indicator. Above here the bulls will attempt to take higher, comes in at 1803.4-1806.9.

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Silver (September)

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