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Grain Express 9/23/22

Posted: Sept. 23, 2022, 8:37 a.m.

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Outside Markets

The U.S. Dollar has made new highs for the week, which is also a fresh new 20-year high. Bonds are lower, which means rates are up. Crude oil is just a stone's throw away from its lowest price of the year. Equity indices are under pressure. This could all change later in the morning/day, but all of this is front and center in the early morning trade and weighing on grain markest.

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Corn

With everything going on in the outside markets and harvest starting to pick up, it's hard to see corn being able to hold trendline support. With that said, crazier things have happened in the last two years. Our bias remains outright Bearish. A break and close above $7.00 would neutralize that. A failure at our pivot pocket from 682-685 could trigger long liquidation down to first support, 665-668 1/2, this pocket represents recent lows and the 100-day moving average.

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Soybeans

Soybeans held well yesterday despite dismal export sales and a rough outside market. In the early morning trade, the risk-off sentiment seems unavoidable (not that that can't change intraday). The market is back near our pivot pocket, 1446 1/4-1450 1/2. A failure to defend this pocket could open the door for a retest of the low end of the range, which comes in closer to 1407-1415.

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Wheat

The wheat chart is constructive, but the fundamentals are questionable. This conflict has kept our bias in Neutral territory. A break and close back below our pivot pocket from 859 1/4-863 3/4 could spark additional selling pressure. On the resistance side of things, the 200-day moving average has been a brick wall, that comes in near 915. A breakout and close above here could take us to the July highs, 950. As mentioned at the start of this segment, we don't have a lot of conviction on either side here.

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Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat

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