Grain Express 10/04/22

Posted: Oct. 4, 2022, 8:24 a.m.

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Weekly Export Inspections

Corn: 661,658 metric tons; in line with analysts' estimates

Soybeans: 575,220 metric tons; in line with analysts' estimates

Wheat: 667,577 metric tons; above analysts' estimates.

Crop Progress

Corn: 20% harvested, this was within the range of estimates, 7% behind last year's pace

Soybeans: 22% harvested; this is a faster pace than expectations, but 9% behind last year's pace.

A Look at the Outside Markets

The dollar is continuing to retreat, trading back to one of the September 23rd breakout point near 111. If the dollar continues to retreat it may offer some support to commodities. Oil is approaching yesterday's high and equity markets are continuing to rally, trading roughly 2% higher this morning.

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Corn

December corn futures were able to gain some ground to start the week, but the overall performance was still less than impressive considering the risk-on trade in other markets. The market is right in our pivot pocket this morning, we've outlined that as 678-682. A close above here could spark a move back towards resistance, we see that coming in from 698-700. We have been in and remain in the camp that believes there will be short term trading opportunities for participants on both sides. A break above resistance or below support would likely change that theses as we could see the market take more of a direction, other than sideways.

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Soybeans

Soybean futures were soooo close to the July 26th gap, we would have thought that they would just fill it and get it over with. The market is was able to defend the August 3rd and 4th lows which has offered some relief in the early morning trade. There is a Bullish seasonal that starts today, but we are hesitant to jump on board just yet. Our hesitancy comes from the delay in planting pushing back harvest, which may bump back the seasonals just a hair.

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Wheat

Wheat futures continue to be very choppy, but the overall chart structure remains constructive. Resistance from 940-950 is the pocket the Bulls need to get out above. A failure to do so could drop prices back to trendline support,

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Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat

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