Grain Express 12/01/22

Posted: Dec. 1, 2022, 8:37 a.m.

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Weekly Export Sales

Corn: 

Net sales of 602,700 MT for 2022/2023

Net sales of 30,000 MT for 2023/2024

Soybeans:

Net sales of 693,800 MT for 2022/2023 

Wheat:

Net sales of 155,500 MT for 2022/2023

Net sales of 7,000 MT for 2023/2024


A Look at the Outside Markets

Equity markets ripped on Fed Chairman Powell's comments yesterday, noting that they pay slow the pace of rate hikes.  This put pressure on the US Dollar, which is seeing more downside pressure this morning, trading at its lowest level since the middle of August

Corn (March)

Managed Money Position: 156,735 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report)

Seasonal Trend in Play:  March corn futures have trended higher from November 16th to January 4th for 13 of the last 15 years.

Technicals: Corn futures made new lows for the week in the overnight session, testing and defending our pivot pocket from 661-664 1/2.  Prices have rebounded back to unchanged ahead of the early morning intermission.  Our bias remains in Bullish territory so long as 4-star support holds.  A break and close below would not only neutralize our bias, but likely flip it to outright Bearish.  On the resistance side of things, the upper end of the recent range and the 200-day moving average are the barriers the Bulls want to get out above, that pocket comes in from 672 3/4-674.

ZCH2023_2022-12-01_07-19-07

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Soybeans (March)

 

Managed Money Position: 83,836

(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)

 

Technicals: March soybeans pulled back to what was previously trendline resistance, that is now support/ our pivot pocket, 1453-1461.  A break and close back below here would neutralize our short-term bias, as it could lead to a retest of the 200-day moving average, 1441 3/4.  If the Bulls continue to defend the pivot pocket, we could see the market make a run at $15.00, which is not just a psychologically significant area, but also technically significant area.  

Seasonal Trend in Play:  March soybeans have trended higher from November 16th to January 9th for 14 of the last 15 years.  

ZSH2023_2022-12-01_07-19-43

 

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Wheat (March)

Managed Money Position: -55,844 (Updated with the weekly CoT Report)

Technicals: Wheat futures were able to rally back near $8.00 yesterday but have so far failed to get out above here.  As mentioned in yesterday's morning report, we switched our bias from bearish to bullish territory, siting a good risk/reward setup in the February $8.00/$8.60 call spread.

Seasonal Trend in Play: None

ZWH2023_2022-12-01_07-20-11

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Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat

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