Grain Express 1/24/23

Posted: Jan. 24, 2023, 7:45 a.m.

Export Inspections

Weekly export inspections for corn and beans were below last week's number, but within the range of expectations.  

  • Corn: 727,643 MT (28,646,031 bushels)
  • Soybeans: 1,805,744 MT (66,349,715 bushels)
  • Wheat: 334,217 MT (12,280,369 bushels)

 

Export Sales to Unknown Destinations

Yesterday morning, private exporters reported sales of 192,000 metric tons (7,054,790 bushels) of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 marketing year.

 

A Look at the Outside Markets

Equity markets are slightly lower in the early morning trade, crude oil is up .25 to 81.87, and the US Dollar is near unchanged at 101.85. 

 

Corn (March)

Managed Money Position: Managed Money are net long 192,137 futures/options contracts, up 42,533 from the previous week.  Broken down, that is 253,836 longs VS 61,699 shorts. 

(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)

Seasonal Trend in Play:  May corn futures have traded higher from January 13th to February 6th for 12 of the last 15 years.  Looking at the historical data, this isn't a seasonal that we would label as "high conviction."  The average profit during this time period is only about 8 cents.  

ZCH2023_2023-01-23_05-57-17

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Soybeans (March)

Managed Money Position: Managed Money are net long 168,298 futures/options contracts, up 36,594 from the previous week.  Broken down, that is 186,794 longs VS 18,496 shorts. 

(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)

Seasonal Trend in Play: None

Next Seasonal Trend Start Date: January 31st 

ZSH2023_2023-01-23_05-59-04

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Wheat (March)

Managed Money Position: Managed Money are net short 65,089 futures/options contracts, up 1,955 from the previous week.  Broken down, that is 53,729 longs VS 118,818 shorts. 

(Updated with the weekly CoT Report)

Seasonal Trend in Play: March KC Wheat has rallied from January 10th-January 26th for 12 of the last 15 years.

ZWH2023_2023-01-24_06-14-56

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