Grain Express 3/16/23

Posted: March 16, 2023, 7:11 a.m.

Weekly Export Sales

Out at 7:30am CT, below are the expectations (in metric tons)

  • Corn: 750,000-1,500,000
  • Soybeans: 50,000-700,000
  • Wheat: 75,000-500,000

NOPA Crush

  • NOPA reported crush at 165.414 million bushels, this was a hair below the average estimate of 166.06 million bushels.  

Export Sales to China (again)

  • Yesterday morning, Private exporters reported sales of 667,000 metric tons (26,258,622 bushels) of corn for delivery to China during the 2022/2023 marketing year. 
  • That is back-to-back days of flash sales to China who's been absent since August.  Demand has been the dark cloud over corn, perhaps that's starting to change after the price decline?  TBD.  

Outside Markets

  • Equity markets were flying around yesterday, opening sharply lower on fears of contagion in the banking sector.  Stocks were able to finish off the lows, with the NASDAQ making it back into positive territory as rates came tumbling down as the market is starting to price in rate cuts in the back half of the year.  
  • Oil got hit hard again yesterday, trading as much as $15.25 off the high from LAST WEEK.  The market was able to find support where the administration said they would start buying to refill the SPR.  In a statement from October: "the President is announcing that the Administration intends to repurchase crude oil for the SPR when prices are at or below about $67-$72 per barrel".

Corn

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • None

ZCK2023_2023-03-16_05-52-45

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Soybeans 

Seasonal Trend in Play

  • July Soybeans have trended lower from February 24th-March 15th for 12 of the last 15 years.

Upcoming Seasonal Trend

  • Starts March 19th.

ZSK2023_2023-03-16_06-08-53

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Wheat

Seasonal Trend

  • May Chicago wheat futures have trended lower from February 7th through April 7th for 13 of the last 15 years.  The average decline is roughly of 15 cents.  Last year was one of the off-trend years, due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  That brought the average gain down.

ZWK2023_2023-03-16_06-14-06

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Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat

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