Grain Express 05/13/22

Posted: May 13, 2022, 8:10 a.m.

Corn (July)

Fundamentals: Yesterday’s USDA report was slightly bearish with one exception, which outweighed the bearish data. The big surprised came from a drop in yield, which the USDA typically doesn’t touch in this report. The USDA dropped the projected yield to 177 bushels per acre (The February Ag Outlook Forum had trendline yield at 181), siting planting delays as the reason. U.S. ending stocks came in at 1.44 billion bushels, above the average analyst estimate. World ending stocks came in at 309.39 mmt, well above the average analyst estimate of 303.76. Argentina’s corn production was slightly above estimate and unchanged from April. Brazilian production was also above estimates and unchanged from April. Ukraine corn production for 2022/2023 came in at 19.5 mmt, a drop of 54%, with exports dropping 61%. July corn was a dud on this report, while December caught a bid.

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Soybeans (July)

FundamentalsYesterday’s USDA report was relatively Neutral. U.S. ending stocks came in at 1.36 billion bushels, in line with estimates. World ending stocks came in at 85.24 which was below expectations, but new crop world ending stocks was above expectations. South American production numbers were within the range of expectations.

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Wheat (July)

Fundamentals: July wheat futures traded to limit up yesterday afternoon, 70 cents (but didn’t close there). All wheat production in the US came in at 1.729 billion bushels, below the average estimate of 1.791. Ukrainian wheat production is expected to drop 35% from last year with exports dropping 47%.

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