Grain Express 05/16/22

Posted: May 16, 2022, 6:53 a.m.

Corn (July)

Commitments of Traders: Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 14,956 futures/options, through May 10th. This trims their net long position to 338,562 futures/options. Broken down that is 375,782 longs VS 37,220 shorts.

Fundamentals: Corn futures opened sharply higher last night, thanks to spillover buying from wheat. Also helping prices was a correction from last week’s CONAB report that lowered Brazilian production to 114.6mmt from 116.2mmt. Attention in the corn market will likely shift back to weather, with the weekly crop progress report coming out after the close. Analysts are expecting to see U.S. corn planting at 47% complete.

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Soybeans (July)

Commitments of Traders: Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed Managed Money were net sellers of 22,591 futures/options, through May 10th. This trims their net long position to 130,661 futures/options. Broken down that is 147,662 longs VS 17,001 shorts.

FundamentalsYesterday’s USDA report was relatively Neutral. U.S. ending stocks came in at 1.36 billion bushels, in line with estimates. World ending stocks came in at 85.24 which was below expectations, but new crop world ending stocks was above expectations. South American production numbers were within the range of expectations.

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Wheat (July)

Commitments of Traders: Friday’s Commitments of Traders report showed Managed Money were net buyers of 4,641 futures/options, through May 10th. This expands their net long position to 15,547 futures/options. Broken down that is 86,968 longs VS 71,421 shorts.

Fundamentals: Wheat prices got shot out of a cannon on Sunday night, trading to limit up at one point. The big move higher comes on the back of more headlines from India regarding a ban on exports. On May 4th we noted in our daily commentary that there were rumors of this being a possibility. Those rumors were quickly shot down by the head of the country’s Agricultural department. Two weeks later, it’s a reality. Inia is the world’s second largest wheat producer and though most of their wheat is sold domestically, it was thought that they could fill some of the gap from a drop in Ukrainian exports. It should be noted that the export ban seems to be flexible, with a Government to Government window still open. It was noted that “Government does not want wheat to go in an unregulated manner to places where either it might just get hoarded or may not serve the food requirements of vulnerable nations.”.

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Grains Soybeans Corn Wheat

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