Advance-Decline Boost and China Movement | Morning Express 05/20/22

Posted: May 20, 2022, 8:34 a.m.

Do not miss our daily Midday Market Minute, from yesterday.

- For stocks, yesterday was best daily Advanced Decline Ratio since May 2020 and best week building since April 2020.

- China cut is benchmark five-year mortgage rate by 15-basis points but kept its prime loan rate unchanged.

- Chinese Yuan at a two-week high against the U.S. Dollar.

- The Hang Seng led things higher +2.96% and Shanghai Composite +1.6%.

- We do expect more from China as they open.

- Shanghai should see public transportation and broader reopening over next 24 hours. However, a case outside of quarantine zone has been found.

- Economic calendar in the U.S. is quiet.

- German PPI data for April came in a touch higher than expected at 33.5% versus 31.5% YoY and 2.8% versus 1.4% MoM, but down from 4.9% in March.

- U.K. Retail Sales rebounded MoM.

- Next week; FOMC Minutes (Wednesday), second look at Q1 GDP (Thursday), and Core PCE (Friday), the Fed’s preferred inflation indicator.

- Two earnings reports we highly anticipated this week were SNPS and PANW. Both topped estimates and have traded strongly. We believe this can help market participants regain some confidence.

- From Wednesday: The Rebound Erodes with Corporate Profits

- From Thursday: Precipitous and Indiscriminate Selling

E-mini S&P (June) / NQ (June)

S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 3897.75, down 25.00

NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 11,878.25, down 57.25

- Yesterday was best daily Advanced Decline Ratio since May 2020 and best week building since April 2020.

- Yesterday’s intraday low came in on the opening bell range. The session was choppy but held constructively above. We must see continued construction even if two-sided volatility and heavy selling persists.

- Our momentum indicators come in as first key support for each S&P and NQ; holding out above here is very constructive.

- Major three-star resistance from yesterday has been a battle ground on rebounds through yesterday and comes in as our Pivot and point of balance on the session.

- In order to begin repairing damage from just Wednesday’s fallout, we must see a decisive move above major three-star resistance at 3974.75-3975.50 in the S&P and 12,132-12,1498 in the NQ.

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NQ (June)

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Crude Oil (July)

Yesterday’s close: Settled at 107.04, down 2.59

- China boosts assets with mortgage rate cut, but there are budding fears that Shanghai’s reopening could slow due to a new case outside quarantine zone.

- Asia Gasoline crack spread hits new record high $37.27 per barrel.

- First key support aligns low of session with rising momentum indicator; bulls in control while out above here.

- Holding out above Pivot and point of balance signals higher prices in near-term.

- Still, major three-star resistance has contained rally attempts at 109.77-110.07.

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Gold (June) / Silver (July)

Gold, yesterday’s close: Settled at 1815.9, down 3.0

Silver, yesterday’s close: Settled at 21.544, down 0.206

- Chinese Yuan trading at two-week high versus the U.S. Dollar, helping to boost metals complex.

- Yesterday’s Midday Market Minute highlighted the inverse head and shoulders patterns in Gold, Silver, Copper, Yen and 10-year futures. Head and shoulders top in Dollar Index. Big bullish tailwinds if this can play out.

- Previous major three-star resistance in Gold is now a critical support at 1829.8-1836.5; bulls are in the driver’s seat while above here.

- Our momentum indicator is our Pivot and point of balance detailed below.

- Silver must chew through key resistance at 21.98-22.13, first two tests have failed.

- Continued construction above the aforementioned levels should pave a path of least resistance for Gold to make a direct test of 1856.3-1858.4.

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Silver (July)

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