Factory orders, ISM Non Manufacturing Employment, and ISM prices came in well below expectations. Treasury yields are lower, and interest rate cut expectations are higher, but the Nasdaq 100 is selling off, is this the top?
Good afternoon traders. It’s Chris Chavis with blue line futures and it’s your daily, midday market minute seeing some profit taking in the NASDAQ 100. And some of the other stock indices Is this the top before we get to it. If you’re watching this video, like and subscribe if you’re on our website, there’s a link to directly to YouTube, you can subscribe that way we would love for you to follow us. We would love for you to help us build our following. Yeah, gold has been rallying sharply silver as well approaching some major overhead resistance and the Nasdaq seeing some selling pressure today. In the question a lot of people are asking a lot of different risk assets today’s is this potentially the top or at least the start of a larger rotation. So under the hood, and we’re looking at equity indices and some of the specific sectors that are showing some outperformance relative to one another. Utilities are really one of the big outperformance here today actually in positive territory while tech, the NASDAQ 100, the s&p, the Russell 2000, the Dow Jones all in negative territory here today. So there are still some positives, you know, spots Within equities in some sectors of the economy. But the interesting thing to note is of course, utilities and even healthcare, I think it’s slightly negative, but definitely under outperforming what you know the other benchmarks are doing today. I mean, you’ve seen a little bit of a defensive trade kind of take place. And this is typically a trade that you see take place when there are some fears as far as the slowdown in economic growth are concerned. So we’re looking at the data that came out this morning factory orders isn non manufacturing employment came in below estimates pretty sharply below estimates I might add, there was also a downward revision to factory orders a negative revision, which was previously a two tenths increase got revised lower to negative three tenths also isn prices came in pretty sharply below expectations. And even though prices continued to grow, the level still came in above 50. It grew slower than what people had expected. So treasury yields are lower here today, interest rate cut expectations and probabilities have moved higher. Despite that, you’re seeing some profit taking in you know, the indices specifically, the NASDAQ kind of leading the way lower here today, followed by the s&p and the Russell and the Dow are also negative territory, but you know, outperforming relative to the NASDAQ and the s&p selling that we’re seeing here today. So again, it kind of goes back to that defensive trade you’re kind of seeing take place, definitely interesting to see there’s now a 70% chance of a cut in June, at 9% chance of a cut in July. So those odds have moved up because the data is data is a little bit weaker here today. One thing I will notice, especially with the data being weaker, and yields being lower interest rate cut probabilities moving higher, it’s kind of interesting to see gold and silver off of the highs. Now gold is kind of hanging out a little bit better than silver, silver still has a lot of industrial uses. And it’s not as closely correlated to the flight to safety trade like gold is. So gold is is holding up nicely. But we did hit some major overhead resistance 2150 And we’re off of those highs. So it does seem like there’s a little bit of profit taking taking place in gold. But overall, you’re still seeing the demand for the precious metal, especially if there is some weakness that’s expected after the data this morning. Now, I don’t want to put too much weight on the data this morning because tomorrow is going to be very important and finishing off the week with nonfarm as well so there’s still a lot for us to get through. But tomorrow we’re gonna get jolts job openings ADP non farm that’s private nonfarm Powell will be testifying before Congress Congress, that’s really going to be important as well. So there’s still a lot to pay attention to. We’re not, we’re not out of the woods just yet. Gonna have to pay attention to this data coming out tomorrow and through the rest of the week. So a four star support level to pay attention to for the s&p is going to be 5066 and a half to 5073. Breaking close below there, we could see some more weakness coupled that with some weaker than expected jobs numbers tomorrow, as you know, things kind of look like the markets are a bit spooked. And you could see some selling it kind of looks like bad news equals bad news today. And that’s one thing I would take away from some of the price action that we’re seeing the NASDAQ three star support is going to be 17,008 75 to 17,009 15. Again, that’s three star level crude oil three star support, we are off the lows and crude it does look a little bit encouraging but I don’t want to see us break in close below 7727 to 7758. And gold three star resistance is going to be that 2150 level but specifically 2152 and three tenths to 2156 and eight tenths. If you have any questions, reach out to our trade desk we’re here for you remember, futures trading involves substantial risk of loss is not suitable for all investors.