E-mini S&P (June)
Last week’s close: Settled at 2831.75, up 12.25 on Friday and down 30.25 on the week
Fundamentals: U.S benchmarks are holding ground near unchanged after the holiday weekend. Friday was a firm session and buyers steadfastly defended technical support despite a deteriorated trade narrative ahead of the long weekend. After recent PMI reads were some of the worst on record, the U.S 10-year Note price is trading at the highest level since November 2017 and the 30-year Bond at the highest level since January 2018. In other words, Treasury yields are roughly at 18-month lows. There is a 77.2% probability the Fed cuts rates this year, the highest yet. The news cycle has been quieter than we have become accustomed to and today we look at data to potentially stir or boost sentiment. The Case Shiller House Price Index is due at 8:00 am CT and a crucial read on May Consumer Confidence is due at 9:00 am CT. Today, the Treasury releases a deluge of supply with 6-month Bills and 2-year Notes due at 10:30 am CT and 3-month and 5-year Notes due at noon CT ($81 Billion between the 2 and 5-years).
Technicals: Friday’s session was overall range bound. Major three-star resistance in the S&P at 2839.25-2842 has kept a lid on rally attempts while key resistance in the NQ at .... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Crude Oil (July)
Last week’s close: Settled at 58.63, up 0.72 on Friday and down 4.29 on the week
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is consolidating higher after its worst weekly loss since December 17th. The geopolitical news cycle from U.S-China trade to OPEC and the Middle East has been overall quiet. Last week’s bloodbath was driven by deteriorating trade talks between the U.S and China but potentially even more so by bloating inventories in the U.S during what is typically a season to see these reduced. Furthermore, that seasonally bullish time of year has arguably just peaked. The straw that broke the camels back was the dismal PMI data as Crude plunged during those results. Inventory data will play a crucial role this week but so will the broader economic data if it echoes a trade war and we look to Manufacturing PMI out of China on Thursday night.
Technicals: On Friday, we discussed that the exacerbated drop was due for a dead cat bounce. This is technically what we are seeing. There is a high probability given the amount of technical damage that a low is not yet in. We plan to lean on major three-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Last week’s close: Settled at 1283.6, down 1.8 on Friday and up 7.9 on the week
Fundamentals: Gold’s recovery through the end of last week on the heels of very poor PMIs is playing out to be nothing more than simply that; a recovery ahead of the long holiday weekend. This morning, the Dollar is a tad stronger against each the Chinese Yuan and Euro. However, Treasury prices and the probability of a Fed rate cut this year have trekked to new highs which the metal has ignored. The data is up next; Case Shiller at 8:00 am CT and a crucial read on May Consumer Confidence at 9:00 am CT. Today is also option expiration for the very popular June contract. There is decent call Open Interest which kept a lid on rallies, however, the put Open Interest begins to pick up at the 1275 strike. Look for 1275 to be a floor today unless Consumer Confidence is a blowout number.
Technicals: Gold struggled to extend gains out above major three-star resistance at 1282.4 despite consecutive closes notching such. First key support comes in at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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