E-mini S&P (June)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2780, down 25.00
Fundamentals: U.S benchmarks are stable and selling pressures have subsided although the news cycle remains negative and the technicals are near-term weak. In separate reports from Bloomberg and Reuters, China has halted all U.S Soybean purchases and called U.S trade actions “naked economic terrorism”. Additionally, worries on the U.S and European trade front are mounting with talks failing to show any progress of late. U.S Treasury yields are taking a breather from roughly 18-month lows, but according to the CME’s FedWatch Tool the odds for a Fed rate cut in 2019 have risen to 81.6%. Furthermore, there is a now a 10% probability they cut in June.
At 7:30 am CT the second look at U.S Q1 GDP is due. After a surprisingly strong 3.2% on month ago, the revision is expected at 3.1%. Bloated inventories dragged on the headline-strong read and we get a peak into Q2 with April MoM Wholesale Inventory data also due then. Pending Home Sales are out at 9:00 am CT and Fed Governor Clarida speaks at 11:00 am CT. Weekly Crude inventories are released at 10:00 am CT and traders should watch this closely. There is reason to believe, simply looking back to October through December and just last week, that Crude Oil is the tail that wags the dog.
Technicals: Both the S&P and NQ extended losses on yesterday’s session and both are still vulnerable and bearish below certain key resistance levels. First, major three-star resistance in the S&P comes in at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Crude Oil (July)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 58.81, down 0.33
Fundamentals: Crude is in recovery mode after finishing two bucks from yesterday’s low and reaching higher in the overnight. API inventory data released after the bell yesterday showed a surprisingly large draw of Crude at -5.265 mb. Another build in Gasoline inventories coming in at +2.711 mb is again unseasonable but for the broader complex it was offset by a draw of 2.144 mb of Distillates. Inventories at Cushing fell by 176,000 barrels and it was news of potential flooding in that region that helped drive price action higher through midday. EIA expectations for today’s data are -0.857 mb Crude, -0.528 mb Gasoline and +0.564 mb Distillates. Given that API deviates far from this, traders should keep a pulse on the composite read.
Technicals: Price action reached a new recovery high since last Thursday’s bloodbath but stalled directly below what is now a rare major four-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1286.3, up 3.8
Fundamentals: Gold continues to hold ground despite U.S Dollar strength as the risk landscape remains uncertain. The second look at Q1 GDP data was in line with expectations being revised down to 3.1% from 3.2%. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims came in better than expected, however, helping Gold is a higher read on Wholesale Inventories. This narrative on bloated inventories is expected to drag Q2 GDP which falls more in line with the weak PMI reads rather than 3.1% GDP in Q1. Although the Dollar has stolen Gold’s immediate safe-haven attraction, Treasury yields at or near 18-month lows is buoying the metal. Pending Home Sales are due at 9:00 am CT and Fed Governor Clarida speaks at 11:00 am CT.
Technicals: Gold faces major three-star resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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