BREAKING: U.S. Gives Some China Products More Time To Avoid Tariff Hike || Tariffs Won't Go Up Until June 15 For Some China Goods
Yesterday’s Close: July corn futures finished yesterday’s session up 8 cents, trading in a range of 14 ½ cents.
Fundamentals: Export sales yesterday morning came in at 14,670 metric tons, well below the range of expectations. We continue to believe there is upside opportunity left in the market and are expecting to see premium work its way back in ahead of next week’s reports. On Monday we get the weekly planting progress report, but we will also get the first look at crop condition ratings. Then, on Tuesday we get the monthly USDA report. The average analyst estimate for corn production is 14.251 billion bushels, down from the 15.030 the USDA had estimated in last month’s report.
Technicals: The market held our technical support pocket yesterday; we had listed that as 404 ¾-409 ¼ and stated in yesterday’s report that: “We believe this pocket represents a great buying opportunity for a short and longer term time frame.”. First resistance to wrap up the week comes in from 424 ½-427 ½, a breakout above here likely propels the market to retest contract highs from last May.
Resistance: 424 ¼-427 ½**, 436 ¾-438**, 445****
Support: 404 ¾-409 ¼****, 398 ¼-400**, 383 ¼-387 ¼****
Yesterday’s Close: July soybean futures finished yesterday’s session down 1 cent, trading in a range of 14 ¾ cents.
Fundamentals: Export sales yesterday morning came in at 583,764 metric tons, within the range of expectations. As we have stated consistently, we believe that the trade tiff between the US and China will continue to be a headwind for the market. If money flow remains strong in the grains, perhaps that helps boosts prices near term, but upside will likely be limited. Analysts expectations for Tuesday’s USDA report is for soybean production to be near 4.125 billion bushels, down slightly from the May report.
Technicals: The market is resting on the 50-day moving average this morning, if we can hold this and close above yesterday’s highs, that could put the market in a good situation going into next week’s trade. Resistance doesn’t come in until 892 ¾-894 ½. If the bulls are unable to defend our pivot pocket, we could see the market roll over and make a run to fill the May 24th gap.
Resistance: 892 ¾-894 ½***, 901 ½-908****
Pivot: 867 ¾-872 ¼
Support: 856-863 ½****, 837 ½****
Yesterday’s Close: July Chicago wheat futures finished yesterday’s session up 19 ½ cents, trading in a range of 26 ¼ cents.
Fundamentals: Weekly export sales came in at 475,910 metric tons, within the range of expectations. Wheat futures have been all over the map over the last few weeks as market participants grapple with ever changing weather forecasts. The US is expected to have a great wheat crop, but the concern is coming from dryness in areas like Australia and Russia, which could hurt the quality of their crop, prompting funds to cover short positions. Next Tuesday is the monthly USDA report, analysts are expecting to see all wheat production at 1.883 billion bushels, down from 1.897 billion bushels.
Technicals: In yesterday’s report we said: “We have been neutral on wheat this week but may be approaching a “cautiously optimistic” bias as we inch closer to the weekend. If the bulls can achieve consecutive closes back above the psychologically significant $5.00 handle, that would mark higher lows and potentially take us to higher highs.”. Yesterday’s price action is what the market needed, now the bulls need to capitalize and keep the momentum going above 518 ¾. First support the bulls need to defend now comes in at 500.
Resistance: 518 ¾-521 ¾****, 540-542 ½***
Pivot: 510 ½
Support: 500**, 490 ¼-494 ½****, 479 ¼-482**
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