E-mini S&P (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2952, down 1.50
Fundamentals: The tape is quiet ahead of the opening bell with U.S benchmarks coming in marginally. Yesterday, we said this rally is hitting a point of exhaustion; after last week’s Fed green light and bull-flag breakout higher, this isn’t where you press the gas. Bill Baruch joined BNN Bloomberg’s Closing Bell yesterday to discuss this healthy consolidation among other topics. Today’s economic calendar is jam-packed with data and Fed speak and patience at this level should pay off. With no less than five speakers, NY Fed President Williams kicks things off at 7:45 am CT but all eyes will be on Fed Chair Powell at noon CT. He is expected to stay the line today when discussing the economic outlook and continue to pave the way for a cut at the July 31st meeting. In fact, with the odds of a cut fully priced in, the probability for 50 basis points has ballooned to 40.5%. This market does not want to see data that is too strong, that begins pricing-out these cuts, however, we cannot see recessionary-like reads either. Case Shiller Home Price Index is due at 8:00 am CT, CB Consumer Confidence is the highlight at 9:00 am CT and New Home Sales is also released then. Richmond and Dallas regional data is due at 9:00 am and 9:30 am CT.
In the headlines, other than the G-20 Summit, there are three topics traders should keep a pulse on. Developments with Iran after President Trump issued an executive order targeted sanctions on Iran’s ‘supreme leader’ and Foreign Minister. FedEx and Micron both release earnings after the bell today. AbbVie agreed to buy Allergan for $63 billion.
Technicals: Price action has been drifting lower ever so slightly since Friday morning’s spike to a new record high. Overall, this market is due for a healthy consolidation lower and we are seeing the potential beginnings of such. We maintain that if price action opens the intraday session above our pivot in the S&P at 2949.50-2953.50, the bulls will attempt another rally. However, below here, the consolidation lower should continue to major three-star support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Crude Oil (August)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 57.90, up 0.47
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is holding just below the 58.22 swing high set yesterday after President Trump issued individually targeted sanctions against Iran’s ‘supreme leader’ and Foreign Minister. Iran responded saying this was the end of diplomacy. Without any fresh this morning on that front, Crude remains elevated but not extended its range. Inventory data will become the focus with analyst expectations trickling out through the day and the private API survey released at 3:30 pm CT. Bill Baruch joined BNN Bloomberg’s Closing Bell to discuss a number of topics including Crude and the current path of least resistance to 60.50.
Technicals: Yesterday’s pullback to 56.75 pinged our major three-star support perfectly and gave bulls the buy opportunity they’ve been waiting for after this run-up through Sunday night. With yesterday’s settlement back above the ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1418.2, up 18.1
Fundamentals: Gold ripped higher overnight marking the fourth session in a row, all after the Federal Reserve’s dovish statement last Wednesday. With the odds for a 50-basis point cut on July 31st ballooning to 40.5%, and the Dollar slipping below a key level of technical support; as we said last week, this is an ideal landscape for the metal. Adding fuel for this rally are escalating tensions and uncertainties in the Middle East. Today’s calendar is packed and will play a key role in helping Gold hold these gains or encouraging a healthy consolidation. NY Fed President Williams did not comment on policy this morning, it looks as he will leave that to Fed Chair Powell at noon CT. Case Shiller Home Price Index underwhelmed at 8:00 am CT. Consumer Confidence is the highlight this morning at 9:00 am CT and New Home Sales is also due then.
Technicals: Gold is up 10% this month and now testing the August 2013 high at 1432.9. We imagine that such a straight shot will run into a bit of technical headwind as shorts have already covered, and FOMO buyers have already chased. We see no reason for Gold to fail here and do not like shorting the metal but are simply exuding caution. In fact, our Trade Alerts Options program released an options strategy to get long exposure in Gold yesterday, contact our trade desk to discuss. This market can pullback to ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and proprietary bias and levels.
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