E-mini S&P (September)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2918, down 4.00
Fundamentals: U.S benchmarks slid this morning from their best levels of the session and are retesting a pivotal level of technical support. The tape firmed through the evening after comments out of China that a truce has been reached to avoid the next round of tariffs on $300 billion of Chinese goods. This jawboning was expected in the lead up to the meeting between the two leaders on Saturday and comes after Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said yesterday a deal is/was 90% in place. Price action turned south this morning after dismal confidence data from Europe that came in below already weak expectations. Furthermore, Boeing is leading sentiment lower down about 2.5% premarket and dragging the Dow into the red after the FAA announced a new hurdle that the company must fix on its 737 MAX.
As we began discussing on Monday, the rally last week ran its course and reached a point of exhaustion. There are a number of signals this week that confirmed such and led the tape lower ranging from a less-dovish Fed Chair Powell to the 50-day moving average crossing over the 100-day in the lagging Russell 2000 small cap index. Regardless, economic growth domestically and globally remains the largest concern with the U.S and China trade war be largest hurdle. The final read on U.S Q1 GDP is due at 7:30 am CT.
Technicals: Price action in each the S&P and NQ has held major three-star support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Crude Oil (August)
Yesterday’s close: Settle at 59.38, up 1.55
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is peeling back a bit into this morning after falling just shy of $60 after yesterday’s bullish EIA inventory report. The report showed a draw of -12.788 mb of Crude, much more than the -2.54 mb expected and the -7.55 reported by API Tuesday after the bell. Although the draw in Gasoline was less than API, it was more than the slight build expected. Distillates drew larger than expected and more importantly estimated production slipped by 100,000 bpd. Overall, this is everything the bulls could ask but the market could not regain the psychological barrier with a high of 59.93. Broader risk sentiment seems to be coming in a bit this morning despite an upbeat narrative on trade ahead of the G-20. Still, the data from Europe this morning reminded traders that economic growth and sentiment is broadly deteriorating and poses a headwind.
Technicals: Price action tested and fell back from first key resistance at 59.70-59.80 which aligned closely with the $60 mark. First key support comes in this morning at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1415.4, down 3.3
Fundamentals: Gold battled above the psychological $1400 mark yesterday while incurring a pullback from its 5-day breakout run. A less-dovish Fed Chair Powell leading a more patient than expected Federal Reserve is the true catalyst this week. Still, a rate cut is fully priced in for July 31st and the odds for 50-basis points remains at 30.2%. Furthermore, the data out of Europe this morning was again underwhelming and U.S weekly Jobless Claims came in higher than expected, missing for third week in four. Therefore, we find this tape much more technical.
Technicals: Price action failed at the August 2013 high and our major three-star resistance at 1432.9. Still, this is a constructive pullback holding the ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
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