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FX Rundown

 

Euro (September)

 

Fundamentals: Rounding out last week, there were some positives for the Euro; German Harmonised CPI surprised to the upside and Industrial Production was a bright spot. However, this was only one side of the coin; U.S CPI also surprised to the upside and today fresh July NY Empire State Manufacturing bounced back from a dismal June. The currency market measures strength versus a counterpart and there has not been a catalyst on either side of the Euro or Dollar to break price action from the more immediate trading range. In fact, the Dollar is trading higher today despite U.S Treasury yields edging ever so slightly lower and the probability of a 50-basis point cut on July 31st elevating to highs. Tomorrow brings a deluge of key economic indicators. The closely watched German ZEW Sentiment along with the Eurozone read are due at 4:00 am CT. U.S Retail Sales is due at 7:30 am CT, Industrial Production follows at 8:15 and Business Inventory data for May is due at 9:00. Fed speak also highlights the day and we look to no less than five speakers highlighted by Fed Chair Powell at noon CT.

 

Technicals: Price action has struggled directly at first key resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

 

 

Yen (September)

 

Fundamentals: Despite U.S equity markets at record highs, the Yen has laid constructive groundwork in recent sessions. A generally unenthusiastic U.S Dollar has helped keep a bid under the Yen as well as Gold. Probably the most surprising asset on the board today was the U.S 30-year Bond and how it recovered more than a point from the overnight low to finish green. This speaks volumes as to the resilience of the safe-haven complex (Treasuries, Yen, Gold).

 

Technicals: The Yen’s test, hold and bounce from major three-star support last week cannot go unnoticed. Friday’s tape in particular paves a path of least resistance higher. We expect a direct test to .... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

 

 

Aussie (September)

 

Fundamentals: The Aussie posted a strong follow-through session on the heels of strong economic data from China last night. Although YoY GDP was the slowest pace of growth on record, Industrial Production, Fixed Asset Investment, Retail Sales and QoQ GDP all came in stronger than expected. It is way too early to assume growth is turning a corner, but this is a bright spot, nonetheless. Tonight, the RBA will release the Minutes from their July 2nd meeting where they cut rates by 25 basis points. At that meeting they noted the global economy was “reasonable” but felt trade risks “tilted to it the downside”.

 

Technicals: We noted in our video last week that we are not Bullish in Bias, but the risks were defined in taking a shot long. After Friday’s sharp move higher incurred follow-through today, the Aussie is still not in the clear and sits at major three-star resistance. However, this is a strong tape and we are now Bullish, but we must, must, must see a close above .. Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

 

 

Canadian (September)

 

Fundamentals: On Friday, the Canadian hit the highest level since late October when on its way down from the USMCA top. The path of the Bank of Canada has foreseeably diverged from other central banks, but this is not the only tailwind supporting price action. Crude Oil has broadly held the $60 mark in recent weeks and there is progress on USMCA. Still, the Canadian data itself is iffy and tomorrow we will see if foreign cash is coming into the country or leaving at 7:30 am CT. Last month showed surprisingly large outflows. Wednesday will be most pivotal with CPI and Manufacturing Sales.

 

Technicals: Price action is at nine-month highs and trending higher. Still, it has not closed out above major three-star resistance at .... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.

 

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

 

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