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Grain Express

August 20, 2019

Corn (December)

 

Fundamentals: The weekly crop progress report was released yesterday afternoon, showing the U.S. corn conditions at 56% Good/Excellent, down 1% from the previous week and 2% below expectations. This coupled with friendly, though early, results from the crop tour have led to a bid in the overnight session. The Pro Farmer tour has South Dakota corn yields at 154.1 bpa, down 13% from last year. They have Ohio at 154.4 bpa, down 14% from last year.

 

Techncials: The market is trying to work higher, a silver lining for the bull camp, but there’s still a lot of work to be done on the chart. The first road bump comes in at 381, Friday’s high. Above that is the gap at 392 ¾. The bears are in control until we see consecutive closes above that gap. On the support side of things, 363 ¾-369 is the pocket we are watching. This represents contract lows and the most recent lows, last week. Though we want to be friendly the market for fundamental reasons, the technicals just aren’t there; for that reason, we are keeping our bias at Neutral.

 

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

 

Resistance: 381**, 392 ¾***, 405-407**

Support: 363 ¾-369***

 

 

Soybeans (November)

 

Fundamentals: November soybean futures continued to drift lower yesterday but have stabilized in the overnight/early morning trade, thanks to a friendly start to the Pro Farmer crop tour and yesterday’s crop progress report. Crop progress showed Good/Excellent ratings at 53%, 1% below estimates and last week’s read.

 

Technicals: The market is trying to stabilize above our support pocket from 854 ½-860 ½, if the bulls fail to hold ground, we could see a bigger technical breakdown. The next pocket of support comes in from 839 ¾-843 ¾ but a run at contract lows wouldn’t be out of the question. On the resistance side of things, there isn’t a lot until 891 ½-896 ¾.

 

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

 

Resistance: 891 ½-896 ¾**, 921-924***

Support: 854 ½-860 ½****, 839 ¾-843 ¾**, 815 ½****

 

 

Wheat (December)

 

Fundamentals: Weakness in the broader grain complex spilled over into yesterday’s wheat trade, money flow in the sector is on the forefront of our radar for the time being. Weekly export inspections came in at 485,905 metric tons, within the range of expectations.

 

Technicals: The market has been making lower highs and lower lows since double topping in the back half of June, keeping the bears in control of the technical landscape. First support comes in 469 ½, a break and close below opens the door for a whoosh lower. The next line in the sand doesn’t come in until contract low, 442 ¼-446. On the resistance side of things, the bulls want to chew through 483 ½-486 for a chance to work back to the psychologically significant $5.00 handle.

 

Bias: Neutral/Bearish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish

 

Resistance: 483 ½-486**, 501 ½-506 ¼****, 525 ¾-531 ½****

Support: 469 ½***, 442-446**, 427 ¼****

 

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

 

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