E-mini S&P (September)
Last week’s close: Settled at 2855.50, down 66.75
Fundamentals: U.S benchmarks are snapping back from Friday’s bludgeoning after President Trump said China called him to restart trade talks and work towards a resolution. Although China has denied such a call, lead negotiator Vice Premier Liu He said he wanted to resolve this escalation through “consultation and cooperation with a calm attitude.” It would seem the fresh round of talks scheduled for early September in Washington are back on and markets have once again responded to open-ended hope. China announced Friday it will levy tariffs on $75 billion of U.S goods ranging from 5% to 10% set to start September 1st and December 15th. President Trump responded by looking into a national emergency that could stop U.S companies from doing business with China. Furthermore, he raised tariffs on $300 billion worth of Chinese goods set to go in effect September 1st to 15% from 10% and tariffs on $250 billion set for October 1st to 30% from 25%. The high trade of the morning was 2888.50; you’re telling us the S&P is back to the bottom-end of last week’s range like nothing happened?
German Business Climate this morning matched the lowest level since November 2012 and the report read “there are more indications of a recession in Germany and the last time industrial companies demonstrated such pessimism was in the crisis of 2009”. U.S Durable Goods are due at 7:30 am CT and we maintain the belief that this market is not thriving on bad news, in fact recessionary data will encourage selling.
Technicals: Volatility is high and living on every headline; traders must manage risk properly. The overnight move in the S&P bled through major three-star support at 2817.25-2823.25, a previous level, but did hold the 200-day moving average which comes in at 2811.75. The NQ did not reach its 200-day moving average but also bled through a crucial level of major three-star support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Crude Oil (October)
Last week’s close: Settled at 54.17, down 1.18 on Friday and down 0.64 on the week
Fundamentals: Crude tumbled to two-week lows on Friday after China announced fresh tariffs on $75 billion worth of U.S goods targeted Crude Oil imports. President Trump, early this morning, said the two sides spoke and plan to begin trade talks in order to find a resolution. His comments reversed the risk-appetite sending Crude Oil as much as 4% from the overnight low and also turning equity markets green. Although the tape is exuding a positive wave of sentiment, the economic data is no better. German Business Climate reached a sever year low and headline U.S Durable Goods fell by 0.4%.
Technicals: The technical damage last week was more on the failure against resistance. To the downside, Crude did manage to settle above major three-star support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Last week’s close: Settled at 1537.6, up 29.1 on Friday and up 14.0 on the week
Fundamentals: Last week was a flagship week for Gold, it laid strong fundamental and technical groundwork and fully capitalized on it before the close Friday. Price action roared higher last night as risk-sentiment deteriorated further and Gold hit 1565.0, a fresh six year high. President Trump has done his best to strengthen hopes U.S and China will continue trade talks despite the two sides upping the ante by increasing tariffs Friday. The headlines are driving the market but let’s not forget about the internals that have boosted Gold all year; worsening global growth. German Ifo Business Climate matched the lowest level since November 2012 and highlighted recessionary conditions. Durable Goods also missed headline expectations falling 0.4%. These anecdotes, if they persist, will continue to keep Gold in a fundamental bull market.
Technicals: Us bulls could not ask for anything more from Gold last week. The battle was won at 1498.6-1500 upon a test each day of the week and once price action gained out above 1513.5-1516.7 and extended through 1520.8 it did not look back. The tape must hold out above ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
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