Livestock futures were able to rally last week, but will seasonal tendencies start to put a headwind into prices?
Live Cattle
Technicals (April- J)
Live cattle futures were able to finish last week’s trade on a strong note, but will technical resistance coincide with seasonal weakness and put a headwind into prices? TBD, but we think it would be advantageous for those needing to protect price to take action or have a plan in place, especially if you had been wishing to get back to these levels just a few short months ago.
Friday’s daily livestock summary had the 5-area average price near 180. Weekly slaughter was reported at 606,000 head, that’s about 10k less than the same period last year.
Resistance:Â 187.30-187.55***, 188.90-189.025***
Pivot: 184.65-185.00Â
Support: 182.60-183.45**, 180.50-181.45***Â
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.Â
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds were net buyers for the fourth consecutive week, extending their net long position to 42,472 futures and options contracts. This is still well below what we saw in the Fall, but this would historically be a pretty neutral position.
Feeder Cattle
Technicals (March – H)
Feeder cattle finished Friday’s trade at their highest level since October 19th. As mentioned with live we think it would be advantageous for those needing to protect price to take action or have a plan in place, especially if you had been wishing to get back to these levels just a few short months ago. Grain markets are also higher this morning, which if it does lead to a bigger relief rally, it may be a headwind for cattle.
Resistance:Â 248.25-249.025***, 253.10**
Pivot:Â 244.00-245.00Â
Support: 242.12-242.35***, 237.57-238.92***
Seasonal TendenciesÂ
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Funds expanded their net long position in feeder cattle to 7,346 futures and options contracts.
Lean Hogs
Technicals (April- J)
April lean hogs had an impressive week last week, the bulk of which came from Wednesday’s trade. The market is near significant resistance and near overbought territory, we wouldn’t be surprised to see the market catch its breath to start the shortened week.
Resistance: 85.50-86.05****, 87.50**
Pivot: Â 83.60-84.00Â
Support: 82.67-82.80***, 79.425-80.00***, 77.25**
Seasonal Tendencies
Below is a look at historical seasonality’s (updated each Monday) VS today’s prices (black line).
*Past performance is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
Commitment of Traders Snapshot
(updated on Mondays)
Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds expanded their net long position to 31,647 futures/options contracts, back near levels from the Fall.Â
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