E-mini S&P (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 2937.50, down 13.50
Fundamentals: Major indices are slipping into U.S hours as trade tensions heat up before Thursday’s talks. This round of talks between high-level U.S and Chinese delegates in Washington has been lauded as a crucial turning point to make a deal. A revolving door of headlines yesterday gyrated the S&P around unchanged, but a sour taste was left after the Chinese Commerce Ministry said changes to intellectual property laws will ‘never’ be on the table. Washington fired back by blacklisting 28 Chinese companies in total, including eight tech companies that range from video surveillance to artificial intelligence. The move outlaws these firms from purchasing components from U.S companies without government approval. China’s Foreign Ministry is expected to fire back. Their deteriorating relationship with the NBA goes to show you their lack of willingness to be seen as vulnerable. Upping the ante, Bloomberg reported the White House as moving forward with discussions around limiting U.S investment in China with a specific focus on pension funds.
On the data front, China’s private HSBC Caixin Services PMI missed expectations last night and came in at the lowest level since March. However, German and Spanish Industrial Production were bright spots this morning. Germany expanded by 0.3% when a contraction was expected and Spain crushed expectations at +1.7%. U.S PPI is due today a 7:30 am CT, although important, CPI on Thursday is watched much more closely. We look to comments from Chicago Fed President Evans (2019 voter) at 12:35 pm CT and Fed Chair Powell again at 12:50 pm CT. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks at 4:00 pm CT, he is a 2020 voter.
Technicals: Price action chewed through major three-star resistance in each the S&P and NQ yesterday but only for a brief, headline driven moment. However, they failed to hold this ground and not only did the S&P fail close above our crucial level at 2937.75-2940.25, it has achieved our near-term downside target at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Crude Oil (November)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 52.75, down 0.06
Fundamentals: Crude Oil reversed sharply yesterday after achieving our first key resistance at 54.03 and right as the S&P came off its high of 2959.50 (key resistance at 2960.50). This was amid a revolving door of headlines on U.S and China trade. It was a hard-lined comment by China’s Commerce Ministry who said they will ‘never’ change intellectual property laws that quickly mounted fears a trade deal is much more out of reach than believed. With no fresh headlines on Crude, Saudi Arabia and Russia are creating their own this morning announcing they will sign an agreement on cooperation. The two Oil dependent countries are attempting to buoy the market by reminding participants of their OPEC+ pact. This has done little to do such with WTI down more than 1%.
Technicals: We noted here yesterday that Crude Oil in recent downtrends quickly builds bear-flag patterns; this is exactly what we are seeing from yesterday into today. Although our true reposition target was 54.70-55.00, our only resistance level before that was 54.03 and yesterday’s high was 54.06. The levels are in the eye of the beholder, how bearish are you? We are fairly Bearish increasing our Bias this morning and especially so after settling back below our pivot of 52.90-53.05. First key support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1504.4, down 8.5
Fundamentals: Like clockwork, Gold is 1% off a new swing low overnight just as China comes back from the Golden Week. The market incurred selling heading into the holiday and now buying coming out, a seasonal staple since China’s Shanghai Gold Exchange opened in 2015. Selling pressures picked up midday yesterday on positive U.S-China trade headlines, however, once tensions turned for the worse, Gold didn’t rebound. In a more or less delayed reaction, the low was set at 8:00 pm CT when China opened. The landscape for Gold remains very favorable and the metal is seeing steady buying this morning after MoM PPI numbers showed a contraction. We look to comments from Chicago Fed President Evans (2019 voter) at 12:35 pm CT and Fed Chair Powell again at 12:50 pm CT. Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari speaks at 4:00 pm CT, he is a 2020 voter. The big hurdle this week will be U.S CPI on Thursday but traders should not sleep on tomorrow’s FOMC Minutes from the September rate cut.
Technicals: What has been major three-star resistance at 1513-1515.6 worked very well in keeping the recovery through last week in check; Gold never settled above here. This technical failure led to waves of selling but as we noted, the bulls are in the drive’s seat above ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to view our entire technical outlook and actionable bias and levels.
Sign up for 1 or all 4 of our daily Blue Line Express commodity reports!
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.