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Grain Express

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Corn (December)

 

Fundamentals:  Corn futures tried to move higher to start the week but fell short of some participants high expectations going into the weekend.  Due to Columbus Day, weekly USDA reports will be out today.  Crop progress is expected to show harvest at 23% complete, this Vs. the 5-year average of 27%.  We remain optimistic on prices but continue to feel a pullback/cleanse would be healthy for the market, especially during a week where there aren’t a lot of flashy headlines.

 

Technicals:  The market tested the 200-day moving average for the first time since August 12th but failed to attract new buyers above there when the floor opened.  Previous resistance now becomes first support, we see that as 390-392 ¾.  If you reduced ahead of the weekend and remain bullish, this would be a pocket to consider getting exposure back on. 

 

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

 

Resistance: 400-402 ½***, 412 ¾-417 ¼****

Pivot: 390-392 ¾

Support: 377-381 ½ ****, 363-366***

 

Soybeans (November)

 

Fundamentals:  Soybean futures had a wide-ranging trade yesterday as market participants tried to digest recent headlines regarding trade with China.  It doesn’t seem that there is much substance in the midst of the positive spin.  Crop Progress will be out after the close, the expectation is for harvest to be 25% complete, this is 11% behind the five-year average.  NOPA crush will be out today, estimates come in near 162 million bushels. 

 

Tehcnials:  The market made a run at the June highs but ran out of gas to stage another leg higher.  With the market at resistance and in overbought conditions, we would not be surprised to see prices have a healthy pullback.  Previous resistance now becomes support, that comes in from 920-924.

 

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

 

Resistance: 948-950****

Pivot: 936 ½-938 ¾

Support: 920-924**, 899-906 ¾ ****, 879 ½-882 ¾***

 

Wheat (December)

 

Fundamentals: December Chicago wheat traded to their highest price since July but failed as broad strength in the grain complex started to dissipate.  If we continue to see broad based grain selling, we would expect to see Chicago wheat follow suit and maybe even lead the way lower. 

 

Techncials:  The market tried to test first resistance at 515 ¾, this represent the 38.2 Fibonacci retracement.  Now the market is retreating and testing first support, previously resistance, 500-506 ¼.  The bulls need to defend this pocket, a failure to do so could take prices back to the mid-480s. 

 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

 

Resistance: 515 ¾**, 525 ¾-531 ½****

Support: 500-506 ¼****, 483-486 ¾***, 476 ¼****

 

Kansas City Wheat (December)

 

Technicals:  Our 4-star technical resistance pocket/objective was tested and held, giving recent buyers a chance to reduce long exposure.  Prices are now retreating to first support, previously resistance, 415 ½-420.  A failure to defend this pocket could take us back towards $4.00.  We are fairly neutral short term and believe pullbacks will be buying opportunities. 

 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

 

Resistance: 428-432 ¾****, 437-442**

Support: 415 ½-420**, 397-400***, 380*

 

Cotton (December)

 

Fundamentals:  Cotton futures had a wicked reversal yesterday after market participants realized that there wasn’t much substance in the “phase 1 trade deal”.  Due to yesterday being a holiday, crop progress will be released after the close, today. 

 

Technbcials:  In yesterday’s report we wrote: “We still like the trend of higher lows and higher highs but think there is more value closer to 62.50. “. That value target was hit, but bulls need to defend it on a closing basis.  A failure to do so could open the door for another leg lower, so be sure to manage your risk. 

 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias:  Bullish/Neutral

 

Resistance: 65.00-65.85****, 68.35-68.60***

Pivot: 62.50-62.91

Support: 59.58-60.79***, 56.59-57.55****

 

 

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

 

 

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