E-mini S&P (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3004.25, down 1.50
Fundamentals: U.S benchmarks are hanging around within an earshot of record highs, ducking and dodging jabs through a long week. Earnings have largely beaten estimates but Amazon disappointed after the bell yesterday and the behemoth is down more than 6% ahead of the open after losing as much as 9%. The report showed a decline in earnings by 26% as the company ramps up same day delivery investment, however, the soft guidance was also a kicker. Intel helped broadly soothe the tape reporting record results, beating top and bottom line estimates and raising its full-year outlook. Verizon topped estimates this morning and the stock is up nearly 1% premarket. Today, the market will look for leadership from the likes of Microsoft, Intel, Verizon and of course one of our recent favorites, JPMorgan. Speaking of such, it couldn’t hurt taking a 70% gain on investment in just one week.
Economic data out of Europe this morning was stable but nothing to write home about. German Consumer and Business Climate each waffled around expectations. News that U.K Prime Minister Johnson is calling for a general election as a confidence vote has rattled the Pound and FTSE 100; remember our narrative, markets have underpriced both positive and negative reaction to Brexit. From the U.S, final October Michigan Consumer data is due at 9:00 am CT.
Technicals: The market profile is beginning to feel exhausted. For this reason, we have completely Neutralized our cautiously Bullish Bias. Major three-star resistance in the S&P at 3008.50 and in the NQ at 7948.25-7959.75 continues to keep the tape from decisively closing out above here and thus confirming a breakout that would likely mount above record highs. For this reason, we have reduced major three-star support in the ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day.
Crude Oil (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 56.23, up 0.26
Fundamentals: Crude Oil is holding near the top of the week’s range and at the highest level in a month. Although the bull camp has been resilient, without additional OPEC cuts in December there are certainly headwinds facing this market. Here’s the thing, although WTI is at $56, Brent is at $61.50. With this benchmark handedly above $60 there is absolutely no reason to for OPEC to get ahead of the curve with cuts in December even though demand growth is expected to soften. Furthermore, it will be difficult achieving broad cooperation beginning with Russia. With all of this said, we find significant value in selling up here for the longer run.
Technicals: We don’t find yesterday’s price action constructive for the bull camp, however, it was a solid consolidation given Wednesday’s surge. However, if Crude had settled a bit closer to 55.97, we may have had an argument for a spinning top candlestick pattern which typically favors a reversal. Our momentum indicator has caught up with price action and now comes in at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1504.7, up 9.0
Fundamentals: It’s Friday and Gold and Silver are throwing a party. We find the surge higher in each this morning very technical, explained below. However, as we mentioned in the S&P section, we do feel this near-term elevation in equity markets is becoming a bit exhausted which in turn creates a demand for safe havens. Still, the Treasury complex is very quiet, and the Dollar is holding ground. The economic data out of Europe this morning was stable and at 9:00 am CT we look to final Michigan Consumer data.
Technicals: We reinvigorated our more Bullish Bias in Gold earlier this week given that the bears had exhausted their attempt to break price action lower. A resilient bull camp built another constructive base before achieving a close above 1500.9-1503 yesterday. Gold is now out above major three-star resistance at 1509-1515.6 which aligns multiple indicators including multiple trendlines and Silver has quietly done the same over the last two trading sessions. Furthermore, Silver is aligning that move with a break back out above the 50-day moving average. We watch the 50-dma very closely for Silver in particular as we believe this brings a directional tailwind. Gold must settle out above ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day.
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