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© 2017 by Blue Line Futures, LLC. 

Grain & Cotton Express

We will be on RFD-TV at 9:45am CST!

 

Corn (December)

 

Fundamentals: December corn futures have been drifting lower for the last two-weeks as concerns over dismal demand continue to trump concerns over production. Yesterday’s weekly export inspections came in at 381,000 metric tons, below the low end of estimates 450,000-650,000. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed harvest is 41% harvested, well behind the five-year average, 61%. With another blast of winter weather scheduled to sweep through the Midwest, concerns over maturity in some states lingers. Wisconsin is only 74% mature, Michigan 75%, North Dakota 77%, and Ohio is at 82%. WASDE and Crop Production reports will be out next Friday, estimates for that will start to pick up in the back half of the week.

 

Technicals: The market is slowly but surely making its way towards our four-star support pocket, a MUST hold for the bull camp through the rest of the week. We have defined that pocket as 377-381 ½. This pocket represents the 50-day moving average, a key Fibonacci retracement, and the lows from the August 10th USDA report. We believe this is a buying opportunity on the first test. A break and close below would neutralize our bias.

 

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

 

Resistance: 390-392 ¾***, 400-402 ½***, 412 ¾-417 ¼****

Support: 377-381 ½ ****, 363-366***

 

Soybeans (January)

 

Fundamentals: Soybeans were the strong link in yesterday’s session but are failing to find their footing in the early morning trade. Export inspections came in at 1,568,000 metric tons, above the top end of estimates. Yesterday’s Crop Progress report showed soybean harvest at 62% complete, the second slowest pace since 2008; in 2009 we were at 46% for the same time. WASDE and Crop Production reports will be out next Friday, estimates for that will start to pick up in the back half of the week. The wild card continues to be “positive trade talks”. The phase 1 deal could be inked as early as November 15th when the two sides meet at a summit in Chile (we are not holding our breath).

 

Technicals: The market failed at our pivot pocket, we defined this in yesterday’s report as 940-941 ½. This has opened the door for some minor pressure as prices retreat towards first support, 9210928 ½. This pocket represents a key retracement, the 200-day moving average, and other previously important price points, including the secondary breakout point from October 1st. If you’re bullish soybeans, this pocket represents value on the first test. A failure to hold ground here would neutralize our bias.

 

Bias: Bullish//Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

 

Resistance: 953-959 ½****, 973 ¼-979 ¼***

Pivot: 940-941 ½

Support: 921-928 ½***, 899-906 ¾ ****

 

Chicago Wheat (December)

 

Fundamentals: Chicago wheat retreated yesterday but has found some support in the early morning trade. Export inspections came in at 523,000 metric tons, within the range of expectations. Yesterday’s crop progress showed winter wheat ratings at 56% good/excellent, 1% below expectations. The crop is said to be 85% planted, 2% behind the expected pace.

 

Technicals: The market broke below our pivot pocket which led to a continuation lower, now the market is flirting with that same area. If the bulls cannot achieve a close back above 515 ¼, we could see a retest of 500-506 ¼. This pocket is psychologically significant, but it also contains the 100 and 200 day moving average, trendline support, and other previously important price points.

 

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

 

Resistance: 525 ¾-531 ½**, 538 ¼-543****

Pivot: 515 ¼**

Support: 500-506 ¼****, 485 ½-489 ¼***

 

Kansas City Wheat (December)

 

Technicals: The market held the low end of technical support to a T yesterday, we had defined that in previous reports as 415 ½ and in yesterday’s report we wrote: “We like being buyers here”. The bulls must defend this through the rest of the week, a failure to do so would neutralize our bias and we would look to try again closer to the technically and psychologically significant pocket from 397-400.

 

Bias: Bullish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral

 

Resistance: 437-439 ½***, 454-457 ¾****

Support: 415 ½-420**, 397-400***, 380*

 

Cotton (December)

 

Technicals: Cotton futures continue to linger in our resistance pocket from 65.00-65.85. We are cautiously optimistic here but the inability to breakout coupled with the tails left on the chart indicate that we could see a healthy pullback, which we would view as a better buying opportunity. Price is what you pay, value is what you get.

 

Bias: Neutral/Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

 

Resistance: 65.00-65.85****, 68.35-68.60***

Support: 61.72-62.50****, 59.58-60.79***, 56.59-57.55****

 

 

If you have any questions about markets, trading, or opening an account please let us know!

 

You can email us at info@BlueLineFutures.com or call 312-278-0500

 

 

 

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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