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Fundamentals: With little new news on the wire, March corn futures spent much of last week trading sideways. We are anticipating this week to be relatively quiet with Thanksgiving on Thursday. Exports improved last week; we will want to see that continue in this Friday’s report. The weekly Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold another 12,610 contracts, expanding their net short position to 123,530.
Technicals: 375 is the line in the sand that the bulls must defend on a closing basis, this acted as support in August, before breaking to contract lows. It then acted as support again in September, after rallying off contract lows. A break and close below takes us back to the lows, 365 ¾. On the resistance side of things, the bulls have their work cut out for them. Consecutive closes back above 382 ¾ could spark short covering and take us back above 390.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 381 ¼-382 ¾***, 389 ¾-392 ¼****
Support: 375-376 ¾***, 365-365 ¾****
Fundamentals: January soybeans had a technical breakdown last week after reports of the Phase 1 trade deal being delayed, this shouldn’t come as a big shock. The market seemed to see price in a regression, which could mean we see increased tariffs on December 15th. With Thanksgiving on Thursday, weekly export sales will be released Friday. Last week’s Commitment of Traders report showed funds sold 12,598 contracts, trimming their net long position to just 18,452 contracts.
Technicals: The technical breakdown in soybeans has taken prices back below the psychologically significant $9.00 handle, but the significant technical level come in from 894-895 ¾. This pocket represents the 50% retracement from the contract lows to the recent highs, it also represents other previously important price points. If the bulls cannot defend support, we could see the selling accelerate and take prices back into the mid-870s.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 909 ½-913***, 928 ½-930 ¼**, 940-941 ½***
Support: 894-895 ¾**, 879-882**, 865-869 ½****
Chicago Wheat (March)
Fundamentals: With December options off the board, we are focusing in on the March contract which is catching a bid in the early morning trade. Friday’s Commitment of Traders report showed that funds sold 2,441 contracts, putting them net short 2,049. This is a neutral position, especially when compared to KC wheat where funds are short over 26,000 contracts.
Technicals: Wheat futures are rallying in the early morning trade on relatively light volume. First resistance this week comes in from 525 ¾-529 ¼. This pocket represents highs from earlier in the month and a key retracement. A close out above here will likely take us above 538 ¼-540, which would be the highest price since July.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 525 ¾-529 ¼***, 538 ¼-540****
Pivot: 515 ¼-517 ¼
Support: 496 ¼-500 ¾****, 485 ½-489 ¼***
Kansas City Wheat (March)
Technicals: Kansas City wheat futures are rallying but are lagging the Chicago contract, widening the already extremely widespread. We still feel more comfortable being long on the KC side than being long Chicago in the above $5.25. First resistance comes in from 445 ½-449 ½. This pocket represents the highs over the last two-months. A close above here could spark a round of short covering and take us towards the 200-day moving average at 465 ¼.
Previous Session Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 445 ½-449 ½***, 465 ¼****
Pivot: 436 ¼
Support: 427 ½-429 ½***, 422 ¾-423**, 411 ¾-413****
Technicals: Cotton futures have reclaimed ground above the 65.00 handle but need to see that hold for consecutive sessions. If the bulls can achieve this, we could see an extension towards 66.93-67.13. A failure to hold ground above 65.00 keeps the bears in the driver’s seat and could take us back towards our support pocket from 62.81-63.73.
Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bearish
Resistance: 64.52-65.00***, 66.80-67.13***, 69.07-69.20****
Support: 62.81-63.73***, 60.30-60.56***
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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.