E-mini S&P (December)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 3134.50, down 11.50
Fundamentals: Major U.S benchmarks have pulled back as much as 1% amid a healthy consolidation in front of a gauntlet of events. U.S and China trade relations are the underlying catalyst but there are a number of themes from Wednesday’s Fed meeting to economic data and drama in Washington that have kept Friday’s post Nonfarm rally in check. In fact, simply coming out of the weekend has many times poured cold water over a Nonfarm melt-up. Is this surprising to us? Certainly not. Although we would not want to pick a top, we cautioned yesterday for bulls to be patient saying it is not uncommon to see such and guess what? Major three-star support was achieved perfectly early this morning.
We have insisted for a month now that what matters most to this market is the December 15th tariffs. Although achieving an interim “Phase One” trade deal is important, it takes a back seat to an announcement of fresh tariffs. Today, the market has gotten what it wants, news that the two sides are close to delaying the December 15th tariffs. Barring any stipulations yet to make headlines, the bulls are handedly in the driver’s seat and eyeing fresh records. Let’s also not forget the first half of the session preceding a Fed meeting can typically pave a path of least resistance higher – the Fed Drift.
Technicals: Major three-star support was achieved at 3117.75-3119.75 in the S&P and 8309-8320.75 in the NQ. Give such coupled with the December 15th tariff news, there is no reason for now to not think U.S benchmarks markets wont gasp for air above the previous record highs. In our typical fashion we do not want to encourage out clients to blindly chase price action. Overhead, there is now trend line resistance associated with the record, Friday’s high and the high on the open yesterday that comes in at 3147.50-3151. First key support in the S&P held beautifully intraday yesterday at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day.
Crude Oil (January)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 59.02, down 0.18
Fundamentals: Crude Oil was drifting lower again this morning but saved by news that the U.S and China are working to delay the December 15th tariffs. We still await an official announcement but noted here yesterday that this is a lurking factor that would lift Crude in the near-term to intermediate-term. Inventory data last week was a bullish factor adding a tailwind into the OPEC meeting. With this week’s numbers nearing, early estimates point to another headline draw of 3 mb. Barring any definitive news, we imagine Crude will continue to gyrate around the $59 mark.
Technicals: We remain Neutral in Bias in the near-term, however, maintain that there is value fading rallies near the $60 mark. For now, major three-star support at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day.
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 1464.9, down 0.2
Fundamentals: Gold did a good job trying to secure a near-term low on the heels of Friday’s blowout jobs report. Furthermore, the metal is up 0.5% this morning despite news that the U.S and China are close to delaying the December 15th tariffs. Yesterday, we noted in the Midday Market Minute that the Treasury complex was holding in terrifically and would help Gold do the same; today’s 10-year Note auction must be watched closely. Also keeping a bid under Gold is today’s Nonfarm Productivity report which contracted larger than expected while Unit Labor Costs also whiffed. The Fed begins their two-day policy meeting today and concludes with a policy announcement at 1:00 pm CT followed by Fed Chair Powell’s press conference at 1:30 pm CT.
Technicals: Gold has done what we requested yesterday, hold the previous 1459.8 December low and hug our pivot into settlement at a minimum. Now, all we need to see is a settlement above first key resistance at ... Please sign up for a Free Trial at Blue Line Futures to have our entire technical outlook, actionable bias and proprietary levels emailed to you each day.
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