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© 2017 by Blue Line Futures, LLC. 

Grain & Cotton Express

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Corn (March)

 

Fundamentals: Corn futures broke lower yesterday after failing to find a bullish fundamental catalyst in this week’s USDA report. Export sales this morning came in at 873,500 metric tons, 60% better than last week and 28% better than the 4-week average. This needs to become the new norm for the bulls to stage a rally.

 

Technicals: The market broke and closed below technical support yesterday, we have defined that as 373-375, this will be first resistance for the remainder of the week. If the bulls fail to regain ground above here, we could see a retest of the September contract lows at 365 ¾. At that point we would like to be buyers with the expectations that we see a technical double bottom and then demand shift by the turn of the year.

 

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

 

Resistance: 381 ¼-382 ¾***, 391 ½-396****

Pivot: 373-375

Support: 365-365 ¾****

 

 

Soybeans (March)

 

Fundamentals: January soybeans retreated yesterday once the floor opened. In yesterday’s report we talked about the recent rally being relief and the bull camp needing to see friendly news to feed the rally. The USDA report fell flat and that has prompted shorts to get back in at better prices. Export sales this morning came in at 1,050,100 metric tons, 54% better than last week but 17% lower than the 4-week average. December 15th tariffs are fast approaching, but we see the deadline being Friday. If these are kicked down the road, we would expect to see it done before the weekend, that way the outside markets will rally and there will be good press over the weekend. If we stick with the tariffs, it makes more sense to announce that over the weekend where the market will have more time to digest information.

 

Technicals: As noted earlier in the week, we believe the recent rally was primarily relief and the bears remain in the driver’s seat, looking at the last two months. Yesterday, the market retreated towards the low end of our pivot pocket, we have defined that as 894-900. If the bulls fail to defend this pocket, we could see the market press lower, the next objective being 878-880.

 

Bias: Bearish/Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Bearish/Neutral

 

Resistance: 909 ½-913***

Pivot: 894-900

Support: 889**, 878-880***, 865-869 ½****

 

 

Chicago Wheat (March)

 

Fundamentals: Chicago wheat futures broke lower yesterday while the KC contract managed to hold ground. We continue to weary of Chicago wheat in the mid $5 range and would rather be sellers on rallies. If you want to be long wheat, we think Kansas City is a better option. Export sales this morning came in at 502,700 metric tons, 33% above the 4-week average.

 

Technicals: The market worked lower yesterday, coming into our support pocket, 515 ¼-518 ¾. This is a MUST hold area for the bull camp, a failure here would likely lead to accelerated selling, taking us closer to the technically and psychologically significant $5.00 handle. On the resistance side of things, the bulls need to reclaim ground back above 525 ¾-529 ¼, a pocket that is becoming more and more out of reach.

 

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

 

Resistance: 538-539 ¼**, 544-546 ½****

Pivot: 525 ¾-529 ¼

Support: 515 ¼-518 ¾***, 504 ½-508 ½**

 

 

Kansas City Wheat (March)

 

Technicals: Kansas City wheat futures managed to hold their own yesterday, an encouraging sign for the bull camp. The market is trying to work back above technical resistance from 428 ¾-432 ¾, previously technical support. If we do see consecutive closes above this pocket, we could see an extension towards 450.

 

Bias: Bullish

Previous Session Bias: Neutral/Bullish

 

Resistance: 428 ¾-432 ¾***, 449 ½-451 ¼***, 465 ¼****

Support: 422 ¾-423**, 411 ¾-413****

 

 

Cotton (March)

 

Fundamentals: Export sales came in at 277,100 RB, 69% better than last week and 9% higher than the 4-week average.

 

Technicals: The market has been forming a bit of a wedge, forming higher lows and lower highs over the last four sessions, this typically leads to a bigger directional move. A breakout above 65.98-66.14 could open the door for an extension above 67. A failure to defend 65.00 would put the bears in control. Our bias remains neutral.

 

Bias: Neutral

Previous Session Bias: Neutral

 

Resistance: 65.98-66.14***, 66.88-67.13****, 69.07-69.20***

Pivot: 64.52-65.00

Support: 62.81-63.73***, 60.30-60.56***

 

 

Feel free to contact Oliver with any questions or comments

Call or Text: 312-837-3938

Email: Oliver@BlueLineFutures.com

 

 

Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

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